The landscape of college basketball is already beginning to shift in anticipation of the 2026 season, and with the latest release of national championship odds, it’s clear which programs are rising and which are losing ground. One of the biggest revelations in the early betting markets has been the elevation of Purdue to the role of the favorite to cut down the nets next April. Once viewed as a perennial contender that always fell short at the worst time, the Boilermakers now carry the confidence of oddsmakers and fans alike. Meanwhile, traditional powerhouse Duke has slipped in the rankings, signaling a change in the national perception of the program’s short-term trajectory. While the college basketball season remains months away from tipping off, the movements in championship odds provide a strong preview of how the upcoming season could unfold and what factors are driving early expectations.
For Purdue, the newfound status as the 2026 national title favorite is a validation of head coach Matt Painter’s persistent efforts to elevate the program to elite status. Over the last several seasons, the Boilermakers have consistently finished near the top of the Big Ten and have earned high seeds in the NCAA tournament. However, early-round exits have haunted the program—most notably, the shocking first-round loss to a No. 16 seed in the 2023 tournament that still lingers in college basketball lore. Despite that stumble, Painter has kept his core philosophy intact, focusing on physicality, rebounding, and efficient offensive execution, often revolving around dominant big men.
Now, as the 2026 season looms, Purdue has successfully retooled and reloaded, returning a talented and experienced core while also adding impactful transfers and freshmen who address previous shortcomings. Unlike years past where the Boilermakers leaned almost exclusively on a traditional post presence, this iteration boasts more backcourt dynamism and shooting versatility. These additions provide a balance that many believe could finally push them over the hump and into the winner’s circle. The betting markets have responded accordingly, installing Purdue as the team to beat with +950 odds to win the national championship.
Key to Purdue’s rise has been the emergence of a more complete roster. The anticipated return of several upperclassmen leaders who could have declared for the NBA draft but chose instead to return has been a game-changer. Their presence ensures stability and continuity, something that is increasingly rare in the transfer-portal era. Players who understand the demands of Big Ten play and the pressures of March Madness will serve as the backbone of a team looking to rewrite its postseason narrative.
Complementing that veteran leadership are a couple of high-profile newcomers who bring athleticism and scoring punch. Purdue’s recruiting class, which ranks among the best in the Big Ten, includes multiple four-star and five-star prospects who are expected to make immediate contributions. The coaching staff has shown an improved willingness to integrate freshmen early into the rotation, a shift from prior years that may pay major dividends. There’s also optimism around the Boilermakers’ defensive potential, as the coaching staff has made perimeter defense and transition containment a focus during the offseason. These upgrades could be the missing links in a championship puzzle that has so often looked nearly complete.
While Purdue’s ascent has been the headline of the early odds release, the slip by Duke has been equally noteworthy. Once a perennial odds-on favorite, Duke has seen its title chances downgraded to +1200, falling behind not only Purdue but also Kansas and Arizona in several sportsbooks. This drop isn’t necessarily a reflection of talent depletion—Duke still boasts a top-five recruiting class and returns several key players—but rather a reflection of uncertainty surrounding how the pieces will fit together under head coach Jon Scheyer.
