The NFL Draft is one of the most unpredictable events on the football calendar. For teams in flux, like the Denver Broncos, that uncertainty is magnified tenfold. And according to a recent forecast from Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Broncos may be gearing up for a major curveball in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. While many analysts and mock drafts have zeroed in on conventional needs like quarterback or offensive line, PFF’s latest analysis suggests Denver might go in a completely unexpected direction—a move that could reshape the franchise’s outlook or stir controversy among fans.
For a team that’s struggled to find its footing since the departure of Peyton Manning, the Broncos are in a critical stage of rebuilding. After another disappointing season that failed to yield a playoff berth, expectations are high for head coach Sean Payton, who is entering his second full year at the helm. While the defense showed flashes of dominance at times, inconsistency across the offensive side of the ball, particularly at the quarterback position, doomed the Broncos to another year of mediocrity. And that’s exactly why so many have assumed Denver would go the safe route in the first round—taking a quarterback, trading up for one, or solidifying the trenches with an elite offensive lineman.
However, PFF’s latest draft model throws a wrench into that narrative. According to the forecast, Denver may target a player that few expect to be taken in the top 15 picks, let alone by the Broncos. PFF didn’t name the prospect directly in the teaser but hinted that the player could come from a position group not typically prioritized early in the draft—perhaps a linebacker, safety, or even a luxury skill position like running back or tight end. The idea is that Denver might be more focused on adding explosive playmakers or defensive anchors than following the traditional “draft a QB at all costs” script.
This isn’t the first time the Broncos have gone against the grain. In 2021, when many expected them to draft quarterback Justin Fields, they instead selected cornerback Patrick Surtain II. While Surtain has blossomed into a star, that decision still divides fans who wonder what could’ve been if the team had taken a shot at their franchise quarterback. If history is any guide, general manager George Paton and now Sean Payton won’t be afraid to pull the trigger on a player they believe is the best fit, regardless of outside noise.
The context of this potential surprise pick becomes even more compelling when considering the team’s current roster structure and cap situation. Denver traded away Russell Wilson and is still digesting the financial aftermath of that decision. With Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci as the most experienced options currently on the depth chart, it seems obvious that the Broncos would target a signal-caller. But perhaps the front office doesn’t see a clear-cut star available at their draft position. Perhaps they believe a quarterback like Bo Nix or Michael Pratt would be better value in the second round—or maybe they have faith that a veteran quarterback will become available via trade post-draft.
In that case, using a high-value first-round pick on a different position could make more sense strategically. Consider the possibility of taking a defensive player who can change the identity of the unit overnight—like linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, who’s been climbing draft boards due to his athleticism and sideline-to-sideline range. Or perhaps it’s an elite tight end like Georgia’s Brock Bowers, who could give Denver a dynamic mismatch weapon in the passing game. Even a receiver—despite the Broncos having several on the roster—might make sense if Payton wants to go all-in on explosive offensive potential.
Another reason PFF’s projection carries weight is their analytics-based methodology. Instead of relying solely on film or positional value, PFF takes into account production, age, positional scarcity, team need, and scheme fit. If their model suggests Denver might shock the world, it’s not just for clickbait—it’s based on numbers and trends. The Broncos may be planning to zig while the rest of the league zags, trusting their internal evaluations and long-term vision.
There’s also an argument to be made that Denver is in a position where taking a gamble is warranted. The AFC West remains one of the toughest divisions in football, with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs still the reigning kings. The Los Angeles Chargers, under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, are expected to be reinvigorated, and even the Las Vegas Raiders have shown signs of improvement. Playing it safe may not be enough to close that gap. Instead, Denver may look for a transformational talent—someone who might not be universally projected as a top-10 pick but who fits perfectly into Payton’s scheme and culture.
This isn’t to say the Broncos will ignore the quarterback position entirely. There’s still a strong possibility they could trade back into the first round or grab a developmental QB later. But if PFF’s forecast proves accurate, it could be a sign that Denver is thinking long-term rather than forcing a short-term fix. One mistake many franchises make is reaching for a quarterback out of desperation—passing up blue-chip talent in the process. The Broncos might be learning from the past and betting on infrastructure before diving back into the QB carousel.
Fans, understandably, may react with skepticism if the team announces a pick that doesn’t align with their expectations. Draft night surprises often lead to a firestorm on social media. But ultimately, if the player becomes a star and helps turn the team around, those initial doubts will fade. Look no further than recent examples like Micah Parsons, who was labeled a “surprise” pick by Dallas at the time but has since become one of the league’s most dominant defenders. Denver may be hoping to find that kind of impact player—someone who redefines what this team is all about.
Of course, the draft is still a few days away, and much can change between now and then. Trade rumors are swirling, medical reports can shift rankings, and front office smokescreens are at an all-time high. But if PFF’s model is correct, Broncos fans should brace themselves for a draft night unlike any in recent memory. Whether it’s a hybrid safety-linebacker, a bruising tight end, or even an elite special teams returner with game-breaking speed, Denver may not be sticking to the script.
It’s also worth remembering that Sean Payton has a history of elevating non-quarterback talent. During his time in New Orleans, he made stars out of players like Alvin Kamara, Jimmy Graham, and Michael Thomas—none of whom were top-10 picks. Payton values versatility, toughness, and football IQ. If he sees those qualities in a player projected outside the usual top-tier pool, he won’t hesitate to take them.
Ultimately, this potential surprise pick could represent a philosophical shift in Denver’s team-building approach. Rather than chasing trends or copying successful teams, the Broncos may be building their own identity—one rooted in playmaking, flexibility, and long-term growth. Whether that leads to immediate wins or lays the foundation for future success, only time will tell.
Until then, speculation will continue to swirl. PFF’s bold projection has opened the door to a dozen possibilities, each with its own set of risks and rewards. But in a league where fortune often favors the bold, Denver might just be ready to take a calculated leap—one that surprises everyone but ultimately helps lead them back to relevance.
So don’t be shocked if the Broncos walk away from the first round without a quarterback or offensive lineman. Don’t be surprised if the pick draws boos from the crowd or confusion from the analysts. If PFF is right, Denver’s front office is playing chess while the rest of the league is playing checkers. And if the move works out, draft night 2025 could be remembered as the moment the Broncos turned a corner—not by doing what everyone expected, but by daring to be different.