The Duke Blue Devils are entering the 2025 college football season riding a wave of quiet confidence and under-the-radar momentum. After back-to-back seasons of exceeding expectations, a new coaching staff led by head coach Manny Diaz, and promising offseason developments, optimism is brewing in Durham. Yet, according to the initial 2025 ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projections, Duke finds itself pegged as a middle-of-the-pack team within the Atlantic Coast Conference.
This middling projection has raised eyebrows among fans and analysts alike. The FPI ranks Duke 48th nationally and ninth among 17 ACC programs, suggesting that the Blue Devils will be closer to bowl contention than conference title conversations. While some argue that the projection is fair given Duke’s schedule and roster turnover, others contend that it undersells the program’s growing stability and potential to surprise.
Understanding the FPI Metrics
The ESPN Football Power Index is a predictive rating system designed to forecast team performance based on a variety of inputs: returning production, past performance, recruiting rankings, and expected strength of schedule, among other factors.
For Duke, several factors are dragging down their 2025 outlook:
- Roster turnover from key positions, especially at quarterback and along the offensive line.
- A first-year coaching staff, as Manny Diaz takes over after a brief but successful run by Mike Elko, who departed for Texas A&M.
- A challenging ACC slate that includes games against Clemson, Florida State, NC State, and Miami.
Despite these hurdles, there’s an argument to be made that the Blue Devils could outperform their current projection.
Manny Diaz Era Begins in Durham
After building one of the nation’s top defenses at Penn State, Manny Diaz now takes the reins at Duke. His hiring was seen as a strong move by Duke athletic director Nina King, signaling that the Blue Devils intend to remain competitive rather than resetting the program.
Diaz has already left his mark on the culture, preaching toughness, discipline, and defense-first football. His message seems to be resonating. Several players have publicly praised the energy and focus of spring practices, noting a renewed sense of purpose under the new regime.
Diaz is also no stranger to the ACC. He spent multiple seasons at Miami, including a stint as head coach, giving him valuable experience navigating the league. His familiarity with the region and recruiting landscape should pay dividends in both the short and long term.
The Quarterback Question
Perhaps the biggest reason for Duke’s middling FPI ranking is the uncertainty at quarterback.
Last year, Duke relied on a combination of Riley Leonard and backup Henry Belin IV. Leonard has since transferred to Notre Dame, leaving a hole at the most important position. During spring camp, all eyes were on transfer QB Maalik Murphy, who arrived from Texas.
Murphy, a physically gifted quarterback with a strong arm and prototypical size, never quite found his footing in Austin but has shown flashes of promise. If he can grasp Diaz’s system and build chemistry with the receiving corps, he could be the X-factor that elevates Duke beyond FPI expectations.
Also in the mix is freshman Colt Greer, an early enrollee with high upside. While unlikely to start right away, Greer’s presence gives the coaching staff a developmental option for the future.
Strength in the Trenches
One area where Duke could exceed expectations is in the trenches. The Blue Devils return several starters along the defensive line, including All-ACC candidate DeWayne Carter. Carter flirted with the NFL but opted to return for a final season, anchoring what could be one of the league’s most disruptive fronts.
The offensive line, however, is more of a work in progress. The unit lost a pair of starters to graduation and the portal but gained two solid additions via transfers. Duke’s ability to protect the quarterback and establish a running game will be key to determining whether it can compete with the ACC’s elite.
Offensive Playmakers Returning
Despite losing Leonard and a few veteran wideouts, the Blue Devils do return several exciting offensive weapons. Junior wide receiver Jordan Moore, a converted quarterback, continues to blossom in his role as a dynamic playmaker. He hauled in 52 receptions for 712 yards and 6 touchdowns last season and is poised for an even bigger year.
At running back, Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore give Duke a reliable one-two punch. Waters led the team in rushing in 2024, while Moore provided explosiveness in spot duty. With both returning, Diaz inherits a capable backfield that could ease pressure on a new quarterback.
Tight end Nicky Dalmolin is another player to watch. Often underutilized in past schemes, Dalmolin could benefit in Diaz’s more balanced attack, particularly in red-zone situations.
Defensive Identity Taking Shape
Defense has been the hallmark of Diaz-coached teams, and Duke is expected to lean heavily on that side of the ball in 2025.
Aside from Carter, Duke’s defensive line features a solid rotation of veterans and promising underclassmen. The linebacker group, led by Dorian Mausi and Cam Dillon, will be critical in run defense and pass coverage.
The secondary remains a bit of a question mark. Safety Jaylen Stinson is a known commodity, but depth at cornerback will need to emerge early. Diaz’s aggressive, blitz-heavy style could mask some deficiencies in coverage, but it will also require precision and discipline from his DBs.
Schedule Outlook
Duke’s 2025 schedule is part of the reason for the modest FPI projection. It includes:
- Non-conference games against Northwestern and Middle Tennessee, both tricky matchups.
- Road trips to Clemson, Louisville, and Florida State.
- Home games against Miami, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest.
The path to 7-8 wins exists, but there’s little room for error. The ESPN FPI gives Duke a 42.3% chance to win six or more games, reinforcing the idea that bowl eligibility is plausible, but not guaranteed.
Key swing games against NC State, Georgia Tech, and Louisville will likely determine the season’s trajectory.
Recruiting and Transfer Portal Impact
Another factor that could influence Duke’s 2025 performance is the impact of recruiting and the transfer portal.
Duke’s 2025 recruiting class isn’t elite by ACC standards but is filled with developmental prospects who fit Diaz’s defensive identity. Four-star defensive back Bryson Nichols is the gem of the class and could see the field early.
The portal has also been kind to Duke. In addition to Maalik Murphy, the Blue Devils added offensive lineman Cam Jackson (Auburn) and linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr (Cal). These veteran additions bolster depth and provide leadership during a transition year.
The Middle of the Pack — A Misleading Label?
Calling Duke a “middle-of-the-pack” team might be statistically accurate, but context matters. The Blue Devils have finished with a winning record in two of the past three seasons and have become a tough out for any opponent.
In 2022, Duke won nine games. In 2023, they started 4–0 before a rash of injuries derailed the season. Even in 2024, amid a coaching transition, Duke finished with a respectable 7–6 record, including a bowl appearance.
If anything, the FPI might be underrating a program that has quietly built a foundation of competitiveness. With Diaz at the helm, strong veteran leadership, and just enough star power, Duke could once again punch above its statistical weight.
The 2025 season will be a proving ground for the Blue Devils.
They aren’t favored to win the ACC. They don’t have the top-rated quarterback or the flashiest recruiting class. But they have something that shouldn’t be discounted — a team-first culture, experienced leadership, and a coaching staff with a proven track record.
For Duke fans, the ESPN FPI projection should be viewed not as a ceiling, but as a challenge.
Yes, the Blue Devils are middle-of-the-pack — for now.
But if history is any guide, Duke Football has a habit of turning modest expectations into memorable seasons.
And with the Manny Diaz era now underway, the Blue Devils may once again find themselves defying the odds, climbing the rankings, and silencing the skeptics one win at a time.
BOTTOM LINE
- FPI Ranking: 48th nationally, 9th in ACC
- 2025 Record Projection: ~6–6
- Biggest Strength: Veteran defense and strong RB room
- Biggest Question: Quarterback play and O-line cohesion
