The 2025 college football season is quickly approaching, and with it comes a fresh wave of speculation, rankings, and projections—none more intriguing than the quarterback battle brewing in Knoxville. While Tennessee fans had long anticipated the rise of former 5-star recruit Nico Iamaleava as the Vols’ clear-cut leader under center, recent developments suggest that oddsmakers are favoring a different face to open the season. According to early betting lines and preseason projections, Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar has been given a slight edge over Iamaleava to win the starting quarterback job heading into the fall.
This decision has caught many by surprise, especially considering Iamaleava’s highly publicized recruitment and his status as one of the most hyped quarterback prospects to ever commit to Tennessee. As a freshman, Iamaleava was considered the heir apparent to Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton, and his arm talent, mobility, and football IQ had fans dreaming of a return to national prominence. But while Nico has the pedigree and promise, Aguilar brings something to the table that the Vols coaching staff may find more immediately valuable—experience, poise, and a proven track record in live game action.
Joey Aguilar transferred into the Tennessee program after a standout season at Appalachian State where he threw for over 3,700 yards and 35 touchdowns, leading the Mountaineers to a Sun Belt Championship and a near-upset of North Carolina early in the season. His breakout campaign turned heads across the college football landscape, not just for the volume of production, but for the maturity he displayed in high-pressure situations. The Vols coaching staff took notice, and his arrival in Knoxville during the offseason sent a clear signal that competition would be wide open in the quarterback room.
Despite Aguilar’s Group of Five background, the odds are tilting in his favor for a reason. His understanding of defensive schemes, his accuracy on intermediate throws, and his leadership qualities have reportedly impressed coaches during spring practices. While spring games are notoriously unreliable predictors of actual depth charts, Aguilar’s performance in controlled scrimmages and his command of the offense have given him the slight edge—at least in the eyes of oddsmakers and insiders.
Of course, this does not mean that Nico Iamaleava is out of the picture. Far from it. He remains one of the most naturally gifted quarterbacks in the country, and many within the Tennessee fanbase still expect him to be the long-term future of the program. But for head coach Josh Heupel, the immediate goal is to win football games, not cater to hype or recruiting narratives. The Vols are at a critical juncture after a somewhat inconsistent 2024 campaign, and a strong start to 2025 is essential if Tennessee wants to stay competitive in an increasingly tough SEC landscape.
What Aguilar lacks in blue-chip credentials, he makes up for in resilience and consistency. He may not possess Iamaleava’s arm strength or explosiveness, but he has shown an ability to make the right decisions, read defenses, and protect the football—traits that are sometimes undervalued in today’s highlight-driven quarterback culture. Oddsmakers are not swayed by recruiting stars or potential. They follow production, momentum, and intangibles. And by those metrics, Aguilar has done enough to warrant the slight advantage heading into fall camp.
Tennessee’s offensive scheme under Heupel is fast-paced and quarterback-friendly, but it also demands split-second decision-making, rapid reads, and the ability to lead. It’s not enough to have arm talent or athleticism. The quarterback must be the engine that keeps the tempo humming and the offense functioning at peak speed. Aguilar’s track record suggests he can thrive in such an environment, whereas Iamaleava still needs to prove he can translate his raw tools into consistent performance against SEC-caliber defenses.
There is also the matter of locker room dynamics. Aguilar, as an older player, has reportedly earned respect from teammates for his work ethic and maturity. While Iamaleava is certainly well-liked, the presence of a seasoned veteran can change the dynamic within a quarterback competition. If players believe in Aguilar’s ability to lead the team to wins, that support could influence coaching decisions even beyond what happens on the practice field.
Another angle to consider is injury risk and durability. Aguilar has shown he can withstand the rigors of a full college football season. Iamaleava, despite his potential, has a limited sample size and has yet to prove he can stay healthy and consistent over the grind of a full SEC schedule. The coaching staff may view Aguilar as the safer bet to make it through the season, particularly if they are prioritizing immediate wins over long-term development.
Nevertheless, oddsmakers giving Aguilar a slight nod does not guarantee he will be the Week 1 starter. Betting odds are reflections of perception, not necessarily predictions of outcome. Still, they are often a useful barometer of how the public—and those with insider knowledge—view the state of a position battle. That Aguilar is even in this conversation, let alone leading it, speaks volumes about his talent and the quality of competition within Tennessee’s quarterback room.
For Tennessee, this situation is both a challenge and a blessing. Many programs would envy the Vols’ dilemma of having to choose between two capable quarterbacks. Whether Aguilar starts the season and hands off the reins to Iamaleava later, or Nico wins the job outright in fall camp, the depth and talent in the quarterback room put Tennessee in a position of strength. In an SEC where quarterback play often determines the margin between playoff contention and mediocrity, the Vols may have two quarterbacks capable of leading them to meaningful success.
From a developmental perspective, the situation may also serve Iamaleava well. Learning behind a veteran like Aguilar could give him the chance to refine his game, adjust to the speed of high-level college football, and step into the role more prepared when his time inevitably comes. Fans may be impatient, but Heupel’s staff must strike a balance between immediate competitiveness and long-term investment.
As fall camp approaches, all eyes will be on Knoxville. Every rep, every throw, and every report from practice will be dissected for clues about who will start under center for the Vols in 2025. While the competition remains open, the betting markets have already spoken—Joey Aguilar has the early advantage, however slight. Whether that edge holds through August is another question entirely, but for now, Aguilar is making believers out of those whose job it is to predict outcomes.
In the end, Tennessee’s quarterback decision won’t just define the early part of the 2025 season—it may shape the trajectory of the program for years to come. A misstep could cost the Vols momentum in a highly competitive conference. A smart choice could vault them into SEC contention. Whether it’s the savvy veteran Aguilar or the gifted prodigy Iamaleava, the Vols are betting that one of them will rise to the occasion. And as the odds currently stand, Aguilar is the one with a slight—but significant—lead.
