# **Fantasy Football Drafts Are Coming Up! Proceed With Caution on These First-Round Picks**
Fantasy football drafts are just around the corner, and the excitement is building. As managers prepare their draft boards, the allure of securing a superstar in the first round is undeniable. However, not every big-name player is worth the early investment. While some are surefire studs, others carry significant risk that could derail your season before it even begins.
The first round is where championship foundations are built—or destroyed. A bad pick here can haunt you all year, forcing you to scramble on the waiver wire or make desperate trades to stay competitive. To avoid that fate, it’s crucial to recognize which players may not live up to their draft position. Let’s examine some of the riskiest first-round candidates and why you should think twice before selecting them.
## **TRunning backs are the backbone of most fantasy teams, and in many leagues, they dominate the first round. However, not all elite RBs are created equal—some come with major red flags.There’s no denying McCaffrey’s upside. When healthy, he’s the best fantasy asset in football, capable of putting up RB1 numbers as both a runner and receiver. But his injury history is concerning. Since his monstrous 2019 season, he has missed significant time in three of the last four years. The 49ers’ offense is loaded with playmakers, which could limit his touchdown opportunities, and his workload—while still heavy—may be managed more carefully to keep him fresh. If he falls to the middle or end of the first round, he’s worth the gamble, but taking him top-three carries substantial risk.Taylor was a league-winner in 2021 but struggled with injuries and inefficiency last season. The Colts’ offense should improve with Anthony Richardson at quarterback, but Richardson’s rushing ability could vulture touchdowns. Additionally, Taylor’s heavy workload in previous years raises concerns about his long-term durability. He’s still a high-end RB1 when at his best, but there are safer options in the first round.Robinson is one of the most talented rookies in recent memory, and the Falcons’ run-heavy offense makes him an enticing pick. However, rookie running backs are always a gamble. The Falcons also have Tyler Allgeier, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season, and Arthur Smith’s offense has been unpredictable in terms of workload distribution. Robinson could be a superstar, but taking him in the first round over proven veterans like Austin Ekeler or Derrick Henry is risky.
Wide Receivers: Elite Talent, But at What Cost?**Wide receivers are becoming increasingly valuable in fantasy, with many managers opting to grab an elite pass-catcher early. However, not all WR1s are worth a first-round pick.Kupp was the WR1 overall in 2021 and started 2022 on a historic pace before injuries derailed his season. Now 30 years old and coming off ankle surgery, there are legitimate concerns about his ability to return to peak form. The Rams’ offensive line is shaky, and Matthew Stafford’s health is always a question mark. Kupp could still be a top-five WR, but his age and injury history make him a volatile first-round selection.Adams remains one of the best receivers in the NFL, but his quarterback situation is a major concern. Jimmy Garoppolo is a downgrade from Derek Carr, and the Raiders’ offense could struggle. Adams will still see plenty of targets, but his efficiency and touchdown upside take a hit with Garoppolo under center. In PPR leagues, he’s safer, but in standard scoring, there are more reliable options.Hill is coming off a career year, but Tua Tagovailoa’s health is a major factor. If Tua misses time, Hill’s production could plummet. Additionally, Jaylen Waddle’s emergence means Hill isn’t the only elite weapon in Miami’s offense. He’s still a top-tier WR, but his reliance on big plays makes him slightly riskier than steadier options like Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase.
Travis Kelce has been the undisputed king of fantasy tight ends for years, offering WR1 production at a thin position. But at 34 years old, can he maintain that level?Kelce is as reliable as they come, but Father Time is undefeated. Tight ends historically decline in their mid-30s, and while Kelce hasn’t shown signs of slowing down, the risk is there. Additionally, the Chiefs added more receiving options (Rashee Rice, Kadarius Toney’s potential breakout), which could slightly eat into Kelce’s target share. He’s still the TE1, but taking him in the first round over a workhorse RB or elite WR is debatable.
In superflex or 2QB leagues, quarterbacks fly off the board early. But in standard leagues, taking a QB in the first round is almost always a mistake.These three are the top fantasy QBs, but the positional advantage they provide isn’t as significant as it once was. The gap between Mahomes and the QB6-8 range is smaller than the gap between an elite RB/WR and their mid-tier counterparts. Unless your league heavily rewards QB scoring, it’s better to wait and grab a high-upside passer in the middle rounds.
The first round is about minimizing risk while maximizing upside. Players like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Austin Ekeler are as safe as they come. Others, like McCaffrey, Kupp, or Kelce, have higher ceilings but come with legitimate concerns.
If you’re picking in the top half of the first round, prioritize consistency. If you’re at the back end, taking a calculated risk on a high-upside player like Bijan Robinson or Tyreek Hill could pay off.
At the end of the day, fantasy football is about balancing risk and reward. Don’t fall in love with names—focus on situation, health, and opportunity. Your first-round pick should be a cornerstone, not a question mark.
Draft wisely, and may the fantasy gods be in your favor.
