According to the latest offseason analysis from NBA.com and other major sports outlets, the Oklahoma City Thunder have indeed been pegged as the early favorites to repeat in the Western Conference heading into the 2025-26 NBA season.1 This projection comes fresh off the heels of the Thunder’s historic 2025 championship run, a monumental achievement that saw them defeat the Indiana Pacers in a thrilling seven-game series.2 This title not only marked the first for the franchise since its relocation to Oklahoma City but also cemented their place as the team to beat for the foreseeable future.3 The Denver Nuggets, meanwhile, are not “fresh off their title run,” but are nonetheless ranked just behind the Thunder in most early-season power rankings and odds, a testament to their enduring championship core and impressive offseason moves. The Nuggets, who won the 2023 championship and were a formidable force in the 2025 playoffs despite key changes, have positioned themselves as the primary challengers to the young and dominant Thunder dynasty.4
The case for the Oklahoma City Thunder as the prohibitive favorite is compelling and multifaceted. It begins, as all discussions about the team must, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Fresh off winning the 2025 NBA MVP and the Finals MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander has solidified his status as one of the league’s most unstoppable forces.5 His unique blend of midrange mastery, elite playmaking, and tenacious defense has made him the engine of a team that won 68 games in the 2024-25 season.6 What truly elevates the Thunder, however, is the remarkable talent surrounding him. Chet Holmgren, in his second full season, fully embraced his role as a two-way marvel, providing elite rim protection and floor spacing that few big men can match. The growth of Jalen Williams, who has blossomed into a polished secondary scorer and playmaker, has provided a perfect complement to Gilgeous-Alexander. The trio, all in their early twenties, represents a core that is not only championship-proven but also has yet to reach its collective peak. The continuity of this young core, which is locked up with long-term extensions, is the foundation of their early-season favoritism. Their deep bench, featuring dynamic players and role players who have grown together, provides a level of depth that is difficult for other teams to match over the course of a grueling 82-game season and a four-round playoff gauntlet. They are a team built not just for a single championship but for a sustained period of dominance.
While the Thunder’s rise has been meteoric, the Denver Nuggets’ sustained excellence makes them the most credible threat. The Nuggets, led by the singular talent of Nikola Jokić, have been forced to re-tool around their two-time MVP. The 2024-25 season saw them deal with key injuries and a coaching change, with Michael Malone being replaced by David Adelman. Despite the upheaval, they remained a top-tier team in the West and pushed the Thunder to a competitive series in the playoffs, proving that as long as Nikola Jokić is on the floor, they are a championship contender. Their offseason moves have been widely lauded as a masterclass in re-tooling a roster to compete in a rapidly evolving Western Conference. The trade that sent Michael Porter Jr. to another team and brought in versatile forward Cam Johnson, coupled with the return of championship-proven veteran Bruce Brown and the acquisition of a new backup center in Jonas Valančiūnas, has given the Nuggets a fresh look.7 The addition of Johnson is expected to provide a defensive upgrade and consistent shooting, while Brown’s return fills a crucial playmaking and defensive void off the bench that was sorely missed. These moves are designed to complement Jokić’s genius and ensure that the team’s championship window remains wide open. The Nuggets’ experience, built on their 2023 title run and a deep playoff history, provides a mental edge that no other team in the West can claim outside of the Thunder. The battle between the young, athletic, and dynamic Thunder and the seasoned, cerebral, and re-tooled Nuggets is shaping up to be the defining rivalry of the next NBA era.
Beyond the top two, the Western Conference is a landscape of formidable teams all vying for a chance at the throne. The Houston Rockets, after a massive offseason that saw them trade for a future Hall of Famer in Kevin Durant, have made a compelling case for a significant leap.8 The addition of Durant alongside a talented young core of players who have matured over the past few seasons has transformed the Rockets from a promising team into a legitimate title threat.9 The Minnesota Timberwolves, with their own superstar in Anthony Edwards and a formidable frontcourt, have been to back-to-back Western Conference Finals and are not a team to be taken lightly.10 The Los Angeles Lakers, while dealing with their own internal drama and an aging superstar, made key moves to solidify their roster and are expected to be a playoff contender. The Los Angeles Clippers, despite losing key pieces, have retooled with a veteran-heavy roster that, if healthy, could be a dark horse. The Dallas Mavericks, even with key changes, still possess one of the league’s most dominant offensive engines. The sheer depth of the Western Conference is staggering, with a half-dozen or more teams possessing a realistic path to a deep playoff run.
The narrative of the 2025-26 season will undoubtedly be framed by the battle for Western Conference supremacy. The Thunder, with their young, cohesive, and championship-winning core, are a new breed of dynasty in the making. They play with a swagger and confidence that is earned, and their continued ascent feels almost inevitable. But the Nuggets, with their established championship pedigree and arguably the best player in the world, are not going to cede their territory without a fight. They have made the necessary adjustments to counter the Thunder’s strengths and will be a motivated and dangerous opponent. The early-season rankings from NBA.com and other outlets reflect a new hierarchy in the NBA, one where the youthful exuberance and talent of Oklahoma City have finally surpassed the experience and dominance of the old guard. However, this is a hierarchy that is far from settled, and the upcoming season promises to be a thrilling and unpredictable race to the top of the Western Conference, a journey that will test the mettle of both the young champions and the seasoned contenders. The stage is set for a clash of basketball philosophies and a rivalry that could define the decade.
