Auburn, the Top Seed in March Madness, Will Face Alabama State in the Round of 64

As the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament tips off, one of the most exciting matchups in the first round of March Madness involves two in-state rivals: the top-seeded Auburn Tigers and the No. 16 Alabama State Hornets. Auburn, having earned the No. 1 seed in the tournament for the first time in its history, comes into the matchup as the overwhelming favorite. However, as with all games in the unpredictable world of March Madness, anything can happen. The game between Auburn and Alabama State promises to be an intriguing clash of two teams with very different histories and strengths, but both with something to prove.

In this analysis, we will take a deep dive into both teams’ performances throughout the season, the key players to watch, the potential for an upset, and what the game means for both schools as they embark on their respective NCAA Tournament journeys.

Auburn’s Journey to the No. 1 Seed

Auburn’s road to the No. 1 seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament has been a culmination of years of hard work, excellent coaching, and incredible team chemistry. Under head coach Bruce Pearl, Auburn has ascended to the top of the college basketball world, earning the top spot in a highly competitive bracket. This season, the Tigers have been dominant on both ends of the floor, showcasing one of the most well-rounded teams in the country.

Key Statistics for Auburn

Record: 31-2 (overall), 16-2 (SEC)
KenPom Ranking: 1st
Offensive Efficiency: 10th
Defensive Efficiency: 4th

Auburn’s combination of offensive firepower and defensive tenacity has been a key factor in their rise to the top. Offensively, the Tigers are led by their dynamic scoring trio and strong ball movement, while defensively, they have one of the best units in the country. Auburn’s defensive schemes, especially in transition and guarding the perimeter, have made it difficult for opponents to generate easy scoring opportunities.

The Tigers’ signature win came against some of the best teams in the SEC, including a sweep of traditional powerhouses like Kentucky and Tennessee. These victories highlighted Auburn’s depth and ability to perform under pressure, and they were instrumental in securing the No. 1 seed in the tournament.

Key Players for Auburn

Auburn’s success starts with Jabari Smith, one of the most dominant players in college basketball this season. Smith, a 6’10” forward, has been the focal point of Auburn’s offense, combining scoring ability, rebounding, and defensive versatility. His 18.7 points per game, 9.3 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game make him a matchup nightmare for opponents.

In addition to Smith, Auburn boasts several other key players, including:

Wendell Green Jr. – The explosive point guard has been crucial in distributing the ball and setting the tempo for Auburn’s offense. He averages 5.6 assists and 1.3 steals per game.
K.D. Johnson – A fiery guard who can score in bunches, Johnson has shown the ability to take over games when needed. He’s a tenacious defender and a key piece of Auburn’s overall strategy.
Walker Kessler – A dominant shot-blocker and rim protector, Kessler’s presence on the defensive end is unmatched. Averaging over 3.5 blocks per game, Kessler anchors Auburn’s defense, often altering or completely denying opponents’ attempts at the basket.

With such a well-balanced roster, Auburn is a team that has few weaknesses. They play fast, defend aggressively, and have the ability to win both in high-scoring affairs and defensive battles.

Alabama State’s Road to March Madness

On the other side of the court, Alabama State enters the NCAA Tournament as the No. 16 seed in the South Region. The Hornets had an impressive season in the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC), earning a spot in the tournament after winning their conference tournament. While Alabama State’s 18-14 record might not stand out on paper compared to some of the top teams in the nation, the Hornets have a unique opportunity to make a statement on the biggest stage in college basketball.

Key Statistics for Alabama State

Record: 18-14 (overall), 12-6 (SWAC)
KenPom Ranking: 220th
Offensive Efficiency: 268th
Defensive Efficiency: 136th

Unlike Auburn, Alabama State’s strength lies in its ability to control the pace of the game and limit high-scoring affairs. The Hornets rely heavily on their defense to keep games close, and while they aren’t an offensive powerhouse, they have the capability to capitalize on turnovers and fast-break opportunities. They can frustrate higher-seeded teams with their physical style of play, and this makes them a dangerous opponent in March Madness, especially when the stakes are high and the unexpected often happens.

Alabama State’s path to the NCAA Tournament was solidified through their gritty performance in the SWAC Tournament, where they defeated teams like Texas Southern and Jackson State to secure the automatic bid. Their experience in close, pressure-packed games could prove valuable as they face a juggernaut like Auburn.

Key Players for Alabama State

Jahari Grant – The Hornets’ standout guard has been a key player all season. Grant averages 16.4 points per game and is known for his ability to score in isolation and create opportunities for his teammates. He’ll be expected to take on a significant role in this matchup, trying to create scoring chances for Alabama State while also leading the defense.
Kameron McGusty – A 6’7″ forward, McGusty provides versatility and scoring ability in the frontcourt. He can stretch the floor with his shooting and provides Alabama State with a reliable option in the post.
Javon Levi – Known for his defensive intensity, Levi will likely be tasked with slowing down Auburn’s guards, particularly Wendell Green Jr. His ability to disrupt passing lanes and make timely steals could be a difference-maker in this game.

Alabama State will rely on their defense to keep the game competitive, trying to limit Auburn’s high-scoring potential while also capitalizing on any mistakes the Tigers make.

What to Expect in the Matchup

As the game kicks off, Auburn enters the contest as the overwhelming favorite, and their balance of offense and defense should put them in a favorable position. However, the NCAA Tournament is known for upsets, and Alabama State will certainly look to use the underdog mentality to their advantage.

Key Matchup: Auburn’s Offense vs. Alabama State’s Defense

The biggest storyline in this game will be Auburn’s offensive firepower against Alabama State’s ability to slow down high-scoring teams. Auburn’s depth of scoring options, including Jabari Smith, K.D. Johnson, and Wendell Green Jr., gives them a multifaceted offense that can be difficult to contain. Alabama State, however, has the defensive tools to disrupt Auburn’s rhythm and potentially force the Tigers into uncomfortable positions. The Hornets will need to defend Auburn’s perimeter players effectively and contain their transition game, where the Tigers excel.

Auburn’s Bench Depth

One of the advantages Auburn has is its depth. While Alabama State has a solid starting lineup, Auburn can bring in players off the bench without much drop-off in talent. This depth will be key as the game progresses, especially in the second half, when fatigue often becomes a factor in March Madness. Auburn’s ability to rotate fresh players and maintain a high level of play will likely be crucial in pulling away from Alabama State.

Alabama State’s Potential to Pull Off an Upset

While Auburn enters this game as the heavy favorite, Alabama State has a clear path to an upset if they can disrupt Auburn’s offense and force the game to be played at a slower pace. The Hornets have the ability to frustrate high-scoring teams, and if they can make Auburn uncomfortable—especially in the first half—the game could remain close into the final minutes. Jahari Grant and Kameron McGusty will need to step up in a big way, both as scorers and leaders on the court, while their defense will have to be nearly perfect to stymie Auburn’s attack.

The Bigger Picture for Both Teams

For Auburn, this game is an important opportunity to show why they deserve the No. 1 seed. While they are heavily favored, they can’t afford to overlook Alabama State, as history has shown that early-round upsets in March Madness are not uncommon. Auburn needs to come into this game focused, executing their game plan with precision, and maintaining intensity throughout the contest.

For Alabama State, the opportunity to compete against the nation’s best in Auburn is an exciting challenge. While the Hornets may be viewed as the underdogs, they have already proven their resilience by earning a spot in the tournament and winning their conference. An upset over Auburn would be historic for the program and would instantly make Alabama State one of the stories of the tournament.