The NBA Playoffs are always a time of excitement, unpredictability, and high-stakes basketball, and this season is shaping up to be no different. With the official bracket now set, one of the most anticipated matchups in the first round features the Golden State Warriors squaring off against the Houston Rockets. Despite both teams having undergone dramatic transformations over the past few seasons, early predictions from analysts, betting markets, and fan discussions alike point to the Warriors as clear favorites to advance past the first round. This growing sentiment is grounded in a mix of championship pedigree, postseason experience, superior roster depth, and the psychological advantage that comes with past success.
Golden State’s identity as a playoff juggernaut has been forged through years of excellence. With four NBA championships in the past decade and countless deep postseason runs, the Warriors have earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to high-pressure games. Led by future Hall of Famer Stephen Curry, the Warriors remain one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league when fully healthy. Curry, whose range and gravity stretch defenses to their limits, continues to play at an elite level despite advancing age. His chemistry with Draymond Green and Klay Thompson remains a defining feature of Golden State’s attack. Green, the heartbeat of the Warriors’ defense and a master of facilitating offensive flow, ensures that Golden State operates with a high basketball IQ on both ends of the floor.
What separates the Warriors from many other playoff teams, and gives them an edge over the Rockets in particular, is their collective experience. Playoff basketball is not just about talent—it’s about poise, timing, and the ability to perform under pressure. Golden State has won series after series against elite opponents, often after falling behind early. They know how to weather storms, manage clock situations, and adapt their game plans over the course of a seven-game series. The Rockets, while promising, are entering a very different arena, one in which their current roster lacks battle-tested resilience.
Houston, on the other hand, comes into this matchup with optimism and a youthful edge, but also with questions about consistency and playoff-readiness. Their young core, including standout guard Jalen Green and blossoming big man Alperen Şengün, has energized fans throughout the regular season. The Rockets have embraced a faster-paced, more dynamic style of play under their revamped coaching staff. Their energy, speed, and fearless attacking style have made them difficult to defend during stretches of the regular season. However, when playoff basketball tightens up, rotations shorten, and defensive assignments become more intricate, that same youth can quickly morph from an advantage into a liability.
Another factor tilting the odds in Golden State’s favor is their versatile roster construction. In addition to the “Core Three” of Curry, Thompson, and Green, the Warriors have benefited from the emergence of younger players like Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody. Kuminga in particular has shown flashes of stardom, using his athleticism to slash to the rim, guard multiple positions, and provide hustle plays that swing momentum. Meanwhile, Andrew Wiggins remains a vital two-way player who, when locked in, can alter games with his defense and secondary scoring. When Steve Kerr’s bench unit is clicking, the Warriors can go ten deep with legitimate contributors—a luxury most playoff teams cannot afford.
Injuries, of course, always loom large, and the Warriors have had their fair share of health concerns. Curry and Thompson have both dealt with wear-and-tear over the past few seasons, while Wiggins missed time for personal reasons. But heading into the playoffs, Golden State appears relatively healthy and unified—a crucial component for any team eyeing a long run. The coaching staff, led by the ever-poised Kerr, has the experience of navigating the grind of playoff basketball. Kerr’s ability to make adjustments in real time, whether through defensive switches or lineup experimentation, has been pivotal in past postseason triumphs.
Houston’s playoff hopes rest on a number of “if” factors. If Jalen Green can elevate his game to superstar levels and maintain efficiency, if their defense can hold up against the constant movement of the Warriors’ offense, and if their supporting cast can hit timely shots and avoid costly turnovers, then they might push Golden State to the brink. But those are steep conditions. In contrast, Golden State only needs to play within their usual system, hit their normal shot diet, and execute their tried-and-true schemes to emerge victorious.
The psychological aspect cannot be ignored either. Golden State has routinely beaten Houston in previous playoff encounters. Most notably, the 2018 Western Conference Finals—where the Warriors came back from a 3-2 deficit against a far more veteran-laden Rockets squad—still lingers in the minds of fans and perhaps in the culture of both franchises. The mental edge in sports, particularly in basketball where momentum is so important, plays an unspoken yet potent role in determining outcomes. Golden State has it, and Houston has yet to show they can overcome it.
One emerging subplot in this series will be how Houston attempts to defend Curry. Most teams have failed over the years, and when they do overcommit, the Warriors’ motion-heavy offense punishes them with backdoor cuts, open threes for Thompson, or high-IQ finishes by Green and Kevon Looney. Houston’s defensive schemes will be tested in every way, and while they’ve improved under the leadership of their coaching staff, few teams in the league have shown the ability to slow Golden State’s offense for four out of seven games. It’s not just about stopping Curry—it’s about surviving the chaos that the Warriors generate around him.
On the other end of the floor, Golden State’s defense remains underrated. While they’re known for shooting, the Warriors’ switch-heavy defense, anchored by Green and Looney, makes it difficult for opponents to get comfortable. Wiggins’ length and Kuminga’s athleticism give Kerr the tools to neutralize wing scorers. If Houston becomes overly reliant on isolation or hero ball, they’ll find themselves shooting contested jumpers late in the shot clock more often than not. That’s a recipe for disaster against a team that punishes transition opportunities with deadly precision.
Another dynamic to watch is coaching. Steve Kerr’s track record in the playoffs speaks for itself, and his ability to make timely in-game adjustments often turns the tide. The Rockets, while well-coached, do not have the same level of tactical experience or the confidence that comes from years of playoff battles. In a chess match, it’s often not just about having the right pieces—it’s about knowing when and how to move them. Kerr is a grandmaster; Houston’s staff is still learning the board.
That said, Houston is not to be entirely dismissed. They’ve shown grit, surprising resilience, and a hunger that only young, unproven teams possess. If they manage to steal a game early—especially on the road—it could force Golden State into some uncomfortable situations. The Warriors have been vulnerable at times this season, especially when they get too reliant on three-point shooting. Cold streaks do happen, even to the best. And if that happens at the wrong time, a series can flip on its head.
Still, these scenarios, while possible, remain outliers. The overwhelming consensus from insiders and fans is that the Warriors are not just favored—they are expected to win this series in five or six games. Their combination of playoff DNA, dynamic offense, defensive versatility, and coaching pedigree presents too much for a Houston team still finding its identity. While the Rockets are on the rise and their playoff future looks promising, this year seems a bit premature for them to mount a real challenge to the battle-tested Warriors.
As the series unfolds, the lessons learned will be just as valuable for Houston as any upset win could be. Playoff experience is the crucible where great teams are forged, and even in defeat, the Rockets could come away stronger. For Golden State, this is familiar territory, and the path forward, though not easy, starts with what they know best: winning when it matters most.
