The 2025 NFL schedule has officially been released, and with it comes the annual flurry of projections, predictions, and possibilities. For the Chicago Bears and their ever-hopeful fanbase, the question lingers louder than ever: can this team finally make a serious run? With a fresh slate of games ahead, renewed optimism surrounding a revamped roster, and a quarterback many believe could be the franchise’s long-awaited answer, all eyes are on the Bears’ win total and Super Bowl odds. Whether the national narrative is skeptical or cautiously optimistic, the numbers are in—and they say more than just wins and losses.
According to multiple sportsbooks, the Bears’ projected win total currently sits at 8.5. That mark reflects a significant uptick in confidence compared to previous years, and it suggests that oddsmakers see Chicago as a middle-of-the-pack team with real upside. Hitting the over would mean a winning season for the first time since 2018, a potential playoff berth, and further validation that the team’s front office finally got things right after years of frustration, rebuilding, and quarterback carousel chaos. But to get there, the Bears must navigate one of the most intriguing and complex schedules in the league, including marquee matchups against NFC contenders and a handful of trap games that could shape the trajectory of the season.
Much of the newfound faith in the Bears stems from their offseason moves, headlined by the addition of No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. The Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback out of USC brings a dynamic presence to a position that has haunted Chicago for decades. Williams isn’t just another rookie—he’s being marketed as a generational talent, someone capable of immediately changing the culture of a franchise. Combine his arrival with the trade for veteran wideout Keenan Allen and the continued development of D.J. Moore, and the Bears’ offense looks better on paper than it has in years. Throw in the emerging backfield combo of Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, plus tight end Cole Kmet, and this unit could finally become a strength rather than a liability.
Of course, the offense alone won’t be enough. The defense, once the identity of this team, still has something to prove. Chicago added pass rusher Montez Sweat last year and is hoping for a bounce-back season from linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, along with continued growth from young pieces in the secondary. The front seven looks more stable than in recent years, but the Bears will need consistency if they want to hold their own against some of the NFL’s elite offenses. Their defensive unit ranked middle of the pack in 2024, and while there were signs of improvement late in the season, turning that into sustainable success is a different story.
Now, with the full 2025 schedule in hand, we can better understand how the odds were shaped. The Bears will open the season at home against the Arizona Cardinals, a matchup that seems favorable but also dangerous. Then, it’s a gauntlet of games including showdowns with the Packers, 49ers, Rams, and Eagles—all teams with postseason aspirations and loaded rosters. There’s also a critical stretch in midseason where Chicago will face four playoff teams in five weeks, a test of depth, coaching, and resilience. That span could be the difference between 7-10 and 10-7, and with it, the fate of the Bears’ playoff hopes.
Looking at the Super Bowl odds, most sportsbooks currently list Chicago as a long shot, hovering around +5000 to +6000. That puts them in the bottom third of the league in terms of title expectations, but higher than in recent years. It also signals that while oddsmakers don’t believe the Bears are ready to compete with the Chiefs, 49ers, or Ravens, they acknowledge the potential for a breakout. Essentially, the betting markets are saying: “not yet, but maybe soon.” And for Chicago, a team whose fans are among the most loyal and tortured in the NFL, “maybe soon” feels like a massive leap forward.
Critically, the Bears must win the games they’re supposed to. The NFL schedule always has its share of surprises, but for a young team with a rookie quarterback, consistency against lesser opponents is essential. Games against the Panthers, Commanders, and Patriots should be circled as must-wins if this team wants to sniff the playoffs. Slipping up in those matchups will put even more pressure on stealing wins against superior teams—a tall task, no matter how talented your quarterback is. The Bears’ margin for error isn’t massive, and every swing game matters.
Coaching will also be under the microscope. Head coach Matt Eberflus survived speculation last year, but his seat is far from cold. With a new GM in Ryan Poles and the high-profile arrival of Williams, expectations are shifting rapidly. Eberflus’ background as a defensive mind will be tested as he tries to mold a young team with star potential into a cohesive and disciplined unit. Mistakes that might have been forgiven in a rebuild phase will now draw harsher scrutiny, and every in-game decision will be magnified by fans and analysts alike. If Chicago stumbles early, calls for a new voice on the sidelines could resurface quickly.
Still, there’s reason to believe this year could be different. Caleb Williams has drawn comparisons to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers—not just for his arm talent, but for his feel for the game, his creativity outside the pocket, and his leadership. That’s not to say he’ll reach those heights immediately—or ever—but his ceiling is undeniably high. If he can handle the pressure of a major market and adapt quickly to NFL defenses, the Bears’ offense will have a chance to keep pace with almost anyone. And that could make them dangerous, especially in a league where quarterback play separates contenders from pretenders.
Beyond talent and matchups, there’s an intangible factor that Bears fans haven’t had in years: belief. For too long, this franchise has cycled through mediocrity, flashes of hope, and inevitable disappointment. This time feels different, not just because of the quarterback or the offseason moves, but because of the vibe. There’s a genuine sense that the organization has a vision and the pieces to execute it. That doesn’t guarantee success, but it does set a foundation. The city of Chicago is ready to rally around a team that’s young, hungry, and finally has a face of the franchise who embraces the spotlight.
Of course, nothing in the NFL comes easy, and for every Cinderella story, there are teams that fall flat under the weight of expectations. The Bears are walking a fine line between sleeper contender and overhyped rebuild. Their schedule is daunting in parts, but manageable overall. Their roster is talented, but young. Their coaching staff is experienced, but not infallible. The odds reflect that balancing act, and the upcoming season will be the ultimate test of whether all the promise can translate into wins.
As training camp approaches, the Bears will need to solidify their offensive line, develop chemistry between Williams and his receivers, and continue building a defense that can close out games. Every practice will matter, every rep will be scrutinized, and the hype will only grow. For the first time in years, the national media is paying attention to Chicago in August—not because of controversy or chaos, but because of possibility. And that’s a refreshing change.
Whether they hit the over on their win total or not, whether they shock the league or simply take a small step forward, the 2025 season will be a defining one for the Bears. It marks the beginning of the Caleb Williams era, a new chapter in a franchise starved for stability and relevance. And as the schedule becomes reality and the games begin, the question will linger with every snap, every throw, and every Sunday afternoon: can the Bears make a run?
The odds are in. The schedule is set. Now it’s up to the team to prove the hype is real.