In a postseason filled with upsets, underdog triumphs, and dramatic last-second heroics, the 2025 NBA Finals matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers might be the most unexpected championship pairing in over a decade. And while fans, players, and analysts alike are still catching their breath from the chaotic conference finals, TNT analyst and Hall of Famer Charles Barkley isn’t wasting any time weighing in with his prediction on who’s taking home the trophy.
“The Thunder are winning the NBA championship,” Barkley declared confidently on Tuesday night, during TNT’s postgame coverage. “I like the Pacers, I love what Tyrese Haliburton’s been doing, but I’m telling you right now — OKC is too deep, too talented, and they’ve got the best player on the floor. That’s why they’re going to win this thing.”
Barkley, known for his blunt honesty, wild bets, and sometimes chaotic takes, isn’t always correct with his predictions — but when he talks, people listen. Whether it’s the legendary “Guarantee!” button or his candid playoff breakdowns, Barkley’s voice resonates with both casual and hardcore basketball fans. So when he issued this bold Finals forecast in favor of the Thunder, it naturally stirred plenty of debate and reaction across the basketball world.
What makes Barkley’s pick particularly compelling is that this Finals matchup defies the usual expectations. The Thunder, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and supported by rising stars like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, weren’t supposed to be here this quickly. Just two seasons ago, OKC was still deeply entrenched in a rebuild, stocked with draft picks and young talent but far from being seen as serious title contenders. This year, however, they’ve made a quantum leap.
Winning 57 games in the regular season and seizing the No. 1 seed in the West, the Thunder have dominated with pace, versatility, and a no-fear attitude. Gilgeous-Alexander’s emergence as a top-five MVP candidate has been the centerpiece of their success, while head coach Mark Daigneault has orchestrated a seamless system that blends youth, athleticism, and basketball IQ.
“The Thunder are just built differently,” Barkley said. “They don’t have any fear. They don’t know they’re supposed to be nervous. These kids, man, they go out and hoop like they’ve been here before. That’s dangerous.”
Dangerous is a fair word for it. In the Western Conference playoffs, OKC took down the seasoned Los Angeles Clippers, gritted out a physical battle against the defending champion Denver Nuggets, and outlasted the Dallas Mavericks and Luka Dončić in a thrilling seven-game conference finals.
On the other side, the Indiana Pacers’ road to the Finals has been no less impressive. While not the top seed, they clawed through the East with relentless energy, unselfish play, and a deep roster that seems to grow stronger by the week. Coach Rick Carlisle’s squad has leaned heavily on Haliburton’s playmaking wizardry, Pascal Siakam’s two-way consistency, and clutch contributions from Myles Turner, Andrew Nembhard, and Bennedict Mathurin.
Barkley, for all his praise of the Thunder, didn’t disrespect the Pacers.
“Tyrese Haliburton is the real deal,” he said. “I don’t think people understood just how special he is until these playoffs. He’s controlling games, getting everybody involved, and when it’s time to score, he’s not afraid of the moment.”
Still, despite acknowledging Indiana’s resilience and execution, Barkley circled back to one defining factor: the best player.
“In the Finals, you need a guy who can take over the game late, get you a bucket no matter what, and rise to the moment. Shai is that guy,” Barkley stated. “He’s already shown it this postseason. He’s not scared, and he’s got that smooth killer instinct. When things break down, he’ll find a way to win it.”
Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 28.6 points, 6.3 assists, and 5.4 rebounds per game during the regular season, has elevated his game in the playoffs, routinely putting defenders on skates and hitting dagger shots in the clutch. For Barkley, that’s the ultimate difference-maker.
“This guy is already one of the five best players in the league,” Barkley said. “And if he wins a championship this year, we might start talking about him as one of the top three.”
Barkley also pointed to OKC’s depth, especially off the bench, as a deciding edge.
“They’ve got guys who can come in and swing a game,” he noted. “Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, even Cason Wallace — they’re all ready. And Chet Holmgren? That dude is a unicorn. He’s going to cause problems for Indiana.”
While some questioned whether Holmgren would hold up under the intensity of postseason basketball, the lanky 7-footer has more than held his own, using his timing, mobility, and shot-blocking to anchor OKC’s defense while spacing the floor offensively.
“He doesn’t need to score 20 points,” Barkley explained. “But he can block three shots, change 10 others, and knock down threes. That changes the whole game.”
That said, Barkley acknowledged Indiana’s own X-factors — particularly Siakam and Turner.
