Texas Tech football stands at a crossroads. The program, which has seen flashes of brilliance but also endured long stretches of inconsistency, is under pressure to deliver. According to one prominent college football analyst, it’s “now or never” for the Red Raiders to establish themselves as a legitimate force in the Big 12. The statement carries weight, especially as the landscape of college football continues to shift with conference realignment, the expanded playoff, and the ever-increasing expectations of fans and boosters.
For years, Texas Tech has been a program teetering between potential and disappointment. The Red Raiders have a proud history, including memorable moments under legendary coaches like Spike Dykes and Mike Leach. The Air Raid offense revolutionized the way football was played in Lubbock, and players like Kliff Kingsbury, Wes Welker, and Michael Crabtree became household names. Yet, since Leach’s controversial departure in 2009, the program has struggled to find sustained success.
The arrival of Joey McGuire as head coach in 2022 brought renewed optimism. A former high school coach with deep Texas roots and extensive experience as a Baylor assistant, McGuire was seen as the right man to reinvigorate the program. His energy, recruiting prowess, and ability to connect with players and fans made him an instant favorite. In his first season, McGuire led the Red Raiders to an 8-5 record, including a thrilling overtime win over Oklahoma and a bowl victory over Ole Miss. The momentum seemed to be building.
However, the 2023 season was a reality check. Texas Tech stumbled to a 7-6 record, plagued by injuries, inconsistent quarterback play, and defensive lapses. While there were bright spots—such as the emergence of young talent and competitive games against top-tier opponents—the season fell short of expectations. Now, as the 2024 campaign approaches, the pressure is mounting. The analyst’s “now or never” declaration isn’t just about this season; it’s about the broader trajectory of the program.
### **The Big 12 Landscape Is Changing**
The conference is no longer the same as it was just a few years ago. Texas and Oklahoma are gone, off to the SEC. The Big 12 has reloaded with new additions like BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston, along with future power Arizona. While the league may lack a true perennial powerhouse, it is deeper than ever, with more teams capable of competing for the title. For Texas Tech, this presents both an opportunity and a challenge.
On one hand, the absence of Texas and Oklahoma removes two major roadblocks. The Red Raiders no longer have to face the Longhorns’ wealth of resources or the Sooners’ dominance. On the other hand, the league is wide open, meaning every game is a battle. Programs like Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Kansas have all shown they can compete at a high level. If Texas Tech wants to rise to the top, it must prove it can consistently beat these teams.
### **The Playoff Expansion Factor**
The 12-team College Football Playoff, set to debut in 2024, changes everything. For a program like Texas Tech, this is a golden opportunity. In the past, making the playoff as a Big 12 team required near-perfection. Now, with more spots available, a two- or even three-loss conference champion could realistically earn a bid.
This is why the “now or never” sentiment resonates. The Red Raiders don’t need to be Alabama or Georgia to make noise—they just need to be the best version of themselves. A strong season with key wins could propel them into the playoff conversation, something that would have been unthinkable in the four-team era. But if they fail to capitalize, other Big 12 programs will seize the moment instead.
### **Recruiting and Development**
McGuire’s greatest strength has been his ability to recruit. Texas Tech’s 2023 and 2024 classes have been among the best in program history, featuring high-profile Texas high school stars and key transfers. The roster is loaded with talent, particularly at the skill positions. However, recruiting is only half the battle—development is just as crucial.
The Red Raiders must turn potential into production. Quarterback play has been inconsistent since Patrick Mahomes left for the NFL. Behren Morton, a highly touted recruit, has shown flashes but needs to stay healthy and take the next step. The offensive line, a perennial issue, must improve to give the offense a chance. Defensively, coordinator Tim DeRuyter has built a solid unit, but consistency remains a challenge.
### **The Schedule: A Path to Success or Disaster?**
Texas Tech’s 2024 schedule is manageable but not easy. Non-conference games against Abilene Christian, Washington State, and North Texas should provide a strong start. In Big 12 play, key matchups include home games against Arizona, UCF, and Oklahoma State, along with tough road trips to Kansas State and TCU.
The Red Raiders must protect their home field and steal a couple of road wins to stay in contention. A 3-0 start is essential, as it would build confidence before the heart of conference play. Dropping early games could lead to another middling season, further fueling the “what if” narrative that has haunted the program for years.
### **The Stakes for Joey McGuire**
McGuire is beloved in Lubbock, but college football is a results-driven business. Another 7-6 or 8-5 season might not be enough to satisfy a fanbase hungry for more. The administration has shown patience, but in today’s climate, patience wears thin quickly.
If Texas Tech can break through with a 9- or 10-win season and a Big 12 title game appearance, McGuire could solidify his place as the coach who finally elevated the program. If not, the pressure will only intensify, and the program could find itself back in the cycle of coaching changes and rebuilding.
### **Conclusion: The Time Is Now**
Texas Tech has everything it needs to succeed—a passionate fanbase, strong recruiting, and a coach who understands the culture. The pieces are in place, but the window of opportunity won’t stay open forever. With the Big 12 in flux and the playoff expanding, the Red Raiders must seize the moment.
As the analyst said, it’s “now or never.” The 2024 season isn’t just another year—it’s a defining moment for Texas Tech football. The program has the chance to prove it belongs among the Big 12’s elite. The question is: Will it rise to the occasion, or will it let the opportunity slip away once again? The answer will shape the future of Red Raiders football for years to come.
