Damien Woody, the former Pro Bowl offensive lineman turned ESPN analyst, has never been one to shy away from strong takes. As someone who played for both the New England Patriots and the New York Jets during his NFL career, Woody’s opinions about those two franchises tend to carry weight. And recently, he made a statement that’s caused ripples across the football landscape: he believes the Jets are the bigger dark horse in the AFC this season compared to the Patriots. At face value, that might seem like an obvious conclusion given recent roster developments and coaching situations, but it goes much deeper than just surface-level observations. When a former player with intimate knowledge of both franchises stakes his claim in such a definitive way, it invites deeper reflection on what makes one team more of a hidden threat than another in a stacked AFC landscape.
For starters, Woody’s assessment of the Jets hinges on one major factor that looms large: quarterback Aaron Rodgers. After missing all but four snaps last season due to a torn Achilles in the opening game, Rodgers has returned this offseason with renewed focus, a restructured body, and a different attitude. That matters because when you combine Rodgers’ Hall-of-Fame résumé with a top-three defense from last season, the foundation for a dangerous football team is already there. Woody has been clear in emphasizing that Rodgers doesn’t have to be MVP-level to make the Jets contenders—he just has to be competent, efficient, and available. And the expectation is that he will be all three.
The Jets’ offseason moves further validate Woody’s optimism. General manager Joe Douglas added offensive line depth and quality with signings like Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, while also drafting a promising tackle in Olu Fashanu. The Jets’ offensive line last season was a turnstile, plagued by injury and inexperience. If Rodgers is to remain upright in 2025, this rebuilt line will be the reason why. The team also brought in Mike Williams to pair with Garrett Wilson at wide receiver, forming what could be one of the more dynamic one-two punches in the conference. Combine that with the continued development of running back Breece Hall, who is now fully healthy and likely to return to his explosive self, and the Jets have a legitimate arsenal of offensive weapons. Woody has pointed out that this iteration of the Jets offense may be the best the franchise has fielded since the early Mark Sanchez years, when the team made consecutive AFC Championship appearances under Rex Ryan.
Then there’s the defense, which, under coordinator Jeff Ulbrich and head coach Robert Saleh, became the backbone of the team last season. Sauce Gardner has already established himself as one of the premier cornerbacks in the league, and Quinnen Williams is an All-Pro force in the middle of the defensive line. Jermaine Johnson II came into his own as a pass rusher, and C.J. Mosley remains a leader and tackling machine in the middle of the field. This defense isn’t just good—it’s elite. The metrics support that: they finished in the top five in several defensive categories last season despite the offense continually putting them in poor field position. Woody has been consistent in saying that the Jets’ defense alone makes them a difficult out on Sundays, and now that they may have a functional offense to pair with it, they suddenly look like a complete football team.
When contrasted with the Patriots, the differences become more glaring. New England is entering its first post-Bill Belichick season in decades. Jerod Mayo, a former player and linebackers coach under Belichick, is now the head coach, and while he is widely respected and considered a brilliant football mind, he is unproven as the top decision-maker. The Patriots’ quarterback situation also remains one of the most uncertain in the NFL. They used a top-three pick on Drake Maye out of North Carolina, but the rookie is still raw and will likely sit behind Jacoby Brissett, a journeyman whose ceiling is limited. Woody has been adamant that until the Patriots figure out their quarterback situation, they cannot be taken seriously as contenders in a conference loaded with talent at the position.
In terms of supporting cast, New England’s offensive weaponry is lackluster. JuJu Smith-Schuster has underwhelmed since arriving in Foxborough, and while rookie wideout Ja’Lynn Polk and second-year receiver Demario Douglas show promise, the Patriots lack a true game-breaking threat. Their running game, led by Rhamondre Stevenson and new addition Antonio Gibson, is solid but not spectacular. It’s a group that’s designed more to control the clock than to strike fear into opposing defenses. The defense, long the calling card of Belichick teams, is expected to remain competitive, but even there, questions linger—particularly around depth and the ability to generate consistent pressure on elite quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes. Damien Woody has repeatedly stressed that the Patriots’ margin for error is razor-thin, and their path to relevance this year involves too many “ifs” compared to the Jets’ far more tangible potential.
The AFC East itself is another factor in Woody’s analysis. It’s a brutally competitive division. The Bills, despite some offseason attrition, still have Josh Allen and a culture of winning under Sean McDermott. The Dolphins are one of the fastest teams in football and are returning most of their key players. For either the Jets or Patriots to make a postseason run, they will need to win games in one of the most punishing divisions in the NFL. Woody sees the Jets as better positioned to survive that gauntlet. With Rodgers healthy, the Jets’ offense has the ability to go toe-to-toe with the Bills and Dolphins, while their defense can neutralize even the most potent attacks. The Patriots, by contrast, look like they’re entering a rebuilding phase—relying on a new coach, a rookie quarterback, and a roster lacking top-tier playmakers.
But perhaps the most compelling aspect of Woody’s argument is intangible: the sense of urgency and expectation within the Jets’ building. After decades of being a league punchline, the Jets know the window with Aaron Rodgers is narrow. They’ve gone all-in on the next two seasons, surrounding him with veteran talent, investing in coaching stability, and drafting with a win-now mentality. Saleh and Douglas are likely coaching and managing for their jobs. The stakes are high. This isn’t a franchise hoping for success down the road—they are banking on 2025 being the year. And according to Woody, that pressure could forge a team that surprises many in a conference where the headlines have been dominated by names like Mahomes, Burrow, and Lamar Jackson.
The Patriots, on the other hand, are setting the table for long-term success. Jerod Mayo is a patient hire, a culture-builder who will be given time to develop his coaching style. Drake Maye is a high-upside prospect who will need at least a year to acclimate to the NFL. The roster construction under new GM Eliot Wolf seems to reflect that forward-looking approach. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that strategy—in fact, it’s smart and necessary after the staleness of the last few Belichick years. But it does mean the Patriots are more likely to be spoilers than serious contenders this season. Woody sees the Patriots winning six or seven games, staying competitive, but ultimately lacking the firepower to make real noise.
For Jets fans, hearing Woody endorse their team as a legitimate dark horse is a dose of validation. This is someone who played in the trenches, who understands what winning football looks like, and who has no problem calling out a team when they fall short. His belief in the Jets isn’t based on hype or marketing—it’s rooted in football fundamentals: a veteran quarterback with a proven track record, a defense that can dominate, and a front office that’s made aggressive, strategic moves to upgrade key weaknesses. Woody is not declaring the Jets a Super Bowl favorite, but rather suggesting that people shouldn’t be surprised if they emerge as one of the AFC’s most dangerous teams come December.
Ultimately, the NFL is an unpredictable beast. Injuries, locker room dynamics, and the inevitable twists and turns of a 17-game season often upend preseason predictions. But when someone like Damien Woody says the Jets are poised to take a big leap while the Patriots are still finding their identity, it’s worth paying attention. He’s not just offering a hot take for television ratings—he’s making an informed projection based on insight, access, and experience. And if he’s right, the NFL world might want to start viewing the Jets not as underdogs, but as sleeping giants who are finally ready to wake up.
