When you look at the recent history of Alabama quarterbacks, there’s no denying that the standard is sky-high. Names like Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, and Bryce Young have redefined what it means to play quarterback in Tuscaloosa. But since Young’s electric 2021 Heisman campaign—where he threw for 4,872 yards and 47 touchdowns—the Crimson Tide’s passing game has cooled off. Now, heading into the 2025 season, the question is straightforward but loaded with implications: Will Ty Simpson throw for more or less than 3,500 yards?
To answer that, you first need to consider where Alabama’s offense stands today and where Simpson fits into that picture. Last season, Alabama leaned heavily on Jalen Milroe, whose dual-threat ability created countless headaches for opposing defenses. But despite some explosive moments, Alabama never quite developed a consistent vertical passing attack. Milroe finished with 2,834 passing yards in 2023—solid, but a far cry from the Bryce Young era. Fast-forward to 2025, and it’s Ty Simpson’s time to take the reins. The former five-star recruit has waited patiently, learned from some of the best in the business, and now finds himself as the clear QB1. But is 3,500 yards a realistic benchmark?
On one hand, the historical context paints a challenging picture. In Nick Saban’s storied tenure at Alabama, only three quarterbacks—Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, and Bryce Young—have surpassed 3,500 yards in a single season. Jones threw for 4,500 yards in 2020, Tua put up 3,966 in 2018, and Young’s 2021 season remains the gold standard. The common thread among those quarterbacks? Loaded receiver rooms, elite offensive lines, and offensive coordinators committed to airing it out. So the next logical question is whether Simpson will benefit from those same conditions.
The answer is both yes and no. Let’s start with the positives. Alabama’s receiving corps, while young, is brimming with potential. Five-star freshman phenom Ryan Williams, after reclassifying to join the 2024 class, is already drawing comparisons to a young Amari Cooper. Sophomore Jalen Hale and junior Kendrick Law are both back, providing valuable experience and explosiveness. Tight end Amari Niblack is a matchup nightmare in the middle of the field, and the Tide also return a pair of running backs in Justice Haynes and Jam Miller who can catch passes out of the backfield. Simply put, the weapons are there. Simpson won’t be short on targets, and the offense has the potential to stretch defenses in ways it couldn’t in 2023.
Additionally, the offensive line—while undergoing some changes—looks to be formidable. Led by left tackle Kadyn Proctor, who has grown into a bonafide star, and guard Tyler Booker, the protection unit should give Simpson ample time to work through his reads and let plays develop downfield. For a pure pocket passer like Simpson, time is everything. When you pair that with an offensive scheme designed by new coordinator Ryan Grubb, who came over from Washington after turning Michael Penix Jr. into a Heisman finalist, it’s easy to see why optimism is growing.
Grubb’s system is a massive upgrade in terms of quarterback friendliness. At Washington, Grubb helped engineer an offense that led the nation in passing yards per game in 2023. Penix threw for 4,903 yards last season under Grubb’s tutelage. The scheme relies on timing routes, deep shots, and smart spacing—three things that play directly to Simpson’s strengths. Simpson is a cerebral quarterback with a quick release and an underrated arm. He’s not the type to beat defenses with his legs like Milroe, but he doesn’t need to be. Grubb will likely tailor the offense to get the ball out quickly, use pre-snap motion to identify coverages, and lean on Simpson’s poise in the pocket.
Still, there are reasons for hesitation. Simpson has yet to start a full college football game. He’s thrown just 50 career passes heading into 2025. That lack of experience can’t be ignored. While his talent is evident—he was the No. 2 quarterback in the 2022 recruiting class behind only Cade Klubnik—talent doesn’t always translate into production, at least not immediately. Quarterbacks often need time to adjust to the speed and complexity of SEC defenses, and Alabama’s schedule is anything but forgiving.
The Tide will face a brutal slate, with road trips to LSU and Tennessee, a neutral-site opener against Wisconsin, and home matchups with Georgia and Auburn. Those defenses are built to confuse quarterbacks with exotic blitzes and disguised coverages. Simpson will have to learn on the fly, and that could mean growing pains—especially early in the season. If Alabama leans on its run game in those tougher contests, it could cap Simpson’s yardage totals even if he plays well.
Game script will also play a significant role. If Alabama’s defense rebounds in 2025 as expected under Kane Wommack, the Tide may find themselves in fewer shootouts. That could mean fewer opportunities for Simpson to throw 35–40 times per game. The Saban-era Alabama teams that featured high-flying passing offenses often did so out of necessity, especially when the defense was young or injury-riddled. But if the 2025 defense lives up to its billing—led by cornerback Domani Jackson, linebacker Jihaad Campbell, and edge rusher Keon Keeley—then Simpson may be asked more to manage games than win them with his arm.
So, what would it take for Simpson to hit that 3,500-yard mark? Assuming a 13-game season including a bowl game or playoff appearance, Simpson would need to average about 270 passing yards per game. That’s not an unreasonable number, but it’s higher than what any Alabama quarterback has averaged over the past three seasons. It would require both volume and efficiency. He’d need to stay healthy, avoid long cold stretches, and have at least three or four 300-yard games against quality opponents. That’s not impossible—but it’s a lot to ask from a first-year starter.
There’s also the question of turnover margin. Young quarterbacks often struggle with interceptions, and Grubb’s offense, while aggressive, does come with risks. If Simpson starts forcing throws or trying to do too much, it could lead to mistakes that shake his confidence or cause the staff to dial things back. There’s a fine line between trusting a young quarterback to sling it and putting too much on his plate too early. Alabama’s staff will walk that line carefully, especially early in the year.
Now let’s flip it and talk upside. If Simpson is the player Alabama coaches believe he can be—if he’s anywhere close to the elite distributor he was in high school—then he has every chance to smash the 3,500-yard barrier. He’s got an NFL-caliber arm, he’s accurate on intermediate throws, and he processes the field well. He’s also working with a coordinator in Grubb who understands how to maximize a quarterback’s strengths and simplify reads for young players. The floor is reasonably high, but the ceiling? It’s huge.
There’s also a motivational component here that shouldn’t be ignored. Simpson has waited a long time for this shot. He’s sat behind two different quarterbacks, resisted the temptation to transfer, and bet on himself in an era when patience is rare. That says a lot about his mindset. He’s entering this season not just hoping to succeed, but determined to prove that he’s the next in a long line of elite Alabama quarterbacks. That chip on his shoulder could be the fuel that powers a breakout campaign.
Ultimately, predicting whether Simpson throws for more or less than 3,500 yards comes down to a few key questions: Will Alabama fully embrace a pass-first identity under Grubb? Can Simpson stay healthy and handle the pressure of SEC play? And will the game scripts allow for enough passing volume to reach that benchmark?
If the answer to all three is yes, then Simpson has a real shot to hit 3,500 yards—possibly even more. But if Alabama leans conservative, if the defense dominates, or if Simpson goes through a rough developmental stretch, he could finish somewhere in the 2,800–3,200 range. That wouldn’t be a failure by any means—it would be a very solid season for a first-year starter—but it would fall short of the number that fans are hoping for.
So what’s the final prediction? If you’re looking for a safe bet, take the under—but not by much. Expect Simpson to finish in the 3,200–3,400 range, with flashes of greatness and steady improvement throughout the year. If he gets hot and builds confidence early, though, all bets are off. Alabama hasn’t had a quarterback throw for 3,500 yards since 2021. This could be the year that changes.
And if it does, the name Ty Simpson might just end up joining that elite fraternity of Crimson Tide quarterbacks who didn’t just meet the standard—but raised it.