In a world where preseason expectations for elite college football programs are either sky-high or doomsday-sullen, the Ohio State Buckeyes rarely live in the middle. They are either projected to steamroll their way to the College Football Playoff or fall into historic disappointment under the crushing weight of tradition, rivalry, and championship expectations. But ESPN college football insider Bill Connelly, known for his advanced analytics and level-headed yet opinionated analysis, recently offered a perspective that straddles the line between optimism and realism—a glass half full take that is neither blind faith nor pessimism cloaked in objectivity. It’s a nuanced projection of what 2025 could bring for Ryan Day’s team, and it just might be exactly what Ohio State fans need to hear.
Connelly isn’t projecting perfection for the Buckeyes. He’s not saying they will march undefeated through the gauntlet of a newly expanded Big Ten that now includes USC, Oregon, Washington, and UCLA. Nor is he guaranteeing a victory over Michigan in Ann Arbor, a game that looms every year like a storm cloud. But what Connelly is doing is pointing out that the pieces are not only in place for Ohio State to be one of the best teams in the country, but that they may finally be better suited to weather adversity than they’ve been in years past. His model—based on returning production, recruiting rankings, coaching stability, and schedule analysis—has Ohio State among the top three in projected SP+ rankings for 2025. And while that’s not surprising, it’s the manner in which he interprets that data that is drawing attention.
According to Connelly, the defining characteristic of the 2025 Buckeyes won’t be raw star power, though they certainly have that in spades. It won’t be the depth of the defensive line, or the flashes of brilliance from their skill position players. Instead, it will be their balance. The offense may not be the most explosive in college football this year, but it will be far more efficient and better rounded. The defense, which has improved steadily under Jim Knowles, will have veteran leadership at all three levels and finally appears capable of being the backbone of a title run rather than the liability. This, Connelly argues, is what separates 2025’s team from some of the more recent Ohio State teams that dazzled with offense but couldn’t hold their own when things got tight.
At the heart of this optimism is quarterback Will Howard, the Kansas State transfer who brings maturity, leadership, and—most importantly—experience in big games. Unlike the string of blue-chip signal callers who have had to learn on the fly in Columbus, Howard has been through the battles. He knows what it’s like to lead a comeback, to silence a hostile crowd, to take hits and get back up. He isn’t a perfect quarterback, but in a system designed to maximize pre-snap reads and minimize risk, he could be the perfect quarterback for this particular Ohio State team. His rapport with Emeka Egbuka, who opted to return for his senior season, and sophomore wideout Carnell Tate, is reportedly ahead of schedule. Add to that a rising star in tight end Jelani Thurman and an offensive line that might be the best Day has had since 2019, and you’ve got a group that can play ball-control, grind-it-out football when necessary. That’s a stark contrast to the all-or-nothing approach of past years.
And then there’s the defense. Connelly notes that the 2025 Buckeyes return nearly 80% of their defensive production from last year’s top-five unit. JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer headline a defensive front that is both disruptive and disciplined. Sonny Styles, the Swiss Army knife safety/linebacker hybrid, has taken a step forward in coverage while continuing to be a force against the run. At cornerback, Denzel Burke returns for what could be a Thorpe Award-caliber campaign, and his backup rotation is arguably deeper than any in the nation. It’s this defense, Connelly says, that will be the difference-maker in November and December. In short, the Buckeyes no longer need to score 45 to beat elite teams—they just need to execute and let the defense do its job.
But the glass half full approach isn’t without caveats. Connelly is quick to point out that while the Buckeyes may be better constructed to win ugly games, they will still have to prove they can do so. There is also the issue of Michigan. The Wolverines have owned the rivalry for three years, and while Jim Harbaugh is now in Los Angeles coaching the Chargers, the psychological hurdle remains. For a program that defines itself as much by its record against “That Team Up North” as it does by national championships, losing four in a row could have existential consequences for Day’s tenure. Connelly, ever the pragmatist, doesn’t ignore this. He simply believes that for the first time in a while, Ohio State may not have to out-athlete Michigan to win—they may just be better prepared.
The schedule, while difficult, is also a point in the Buckeyes’ favor in Connelly’s estimation. They get Penn State at home in early October, a game that could serve as a tone-setter for the season. Trips to East Lansing and West Lafayette come with historical baggage, but neither opponent is expected to contend in 2025. The wild cards are Oregon and USC. The Buckeyes host Oregon in mid-November in what Connelly calls “a potential play-in game” for the Big Ten Championship. By then, the Buckeyes should be operating at full strength and will likely be favored. The USC game, which takes place in Pasadena, is perhaps more symbolic than anything else—a return to the Rose Bowl for two blue-bloods in an era of conference realignment madness. If Ohio State can go 11-1 with a win over either Michigan or Oregon, they’ll almost certainly be a playoff team in the 12-team format. That’s the glass half full logic Connelly subscribes to.
Of course, there are landmines. Injuries, as always, could derail the season, especially if they occur in the trenches. The offense, while potentially more consistent, lacks the breakaway threats of past years—no Garrett Wilson, no Chris Olave, no Marvin Harrison Jr. That could put a ceiling on their ability to come from behind in shootouts. And there’s also the pressure. Every game will be viewed through the lens of championship contention. Every misstep will be magnified. Ryan Day, despite his sterling record, will have critics waiting to pounce at the first sign of vulnerability. That scrutiny could weigh on the program, or it could galvanize it.
But what separates this take from so many others is its balance. Connelly isn’t handing the Buckeyes a trophy in July, nor is he saying they’re doomed to fail. He’s recognizing that in an era defined by chaos and transition—realignment, NIL upheaval, transfer portal volatility—Ohio State has managed to maintain a sense of identity and direction. They’re not the flashiest team in the country, but they may be among the most stable. And in 2025, that might be worth more than raw talent alone.
Fans may want guarantees. They may want to hear that this is the year the losing streak to Michigan ends, the playoff drought is broken, and the national title is returned to Columbus. But Connelly’s glass half full take is a reminder that college football isn’t always that simple. Sometimes it’s about being in position, year after year, until the breaks finally go your way. Sometimes it’s about learning from failure, adjusting without panicking, and building a team that can thrive in different types of games. That’s what he sees in the 2025 Buckeyes—not a team that is destined to win it all, but one that is better prepared than any recent Ohio State squad to do so.
It may not be the boldest prediction ESPN has ever aired, but it may end up being one of the most accurate. Ohio State doesn’t need hype this year. They need clarity, cohesion, and confidence. And if Connelly is right, they’ve got just enough of each to make 2025 the year they finally put it all together.
