ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has projected LSU to win approximately 10 games in the upcoming season. This projection has sparked considerable debate among fans and analysts, with some questioning the accuracy and fairness of the FPI’s assessment. Despite this, LSU’s recruiting efforts have been exceptional, with the program securing commitments from several top-tier prospects, including four-star linebacker Charles Ross and five-star wide receiver Tristen Keys.
The FPI is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). This rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections. While the FPI has been praised for its data-driven approach, it has also faced criticism for its reliance on probabilities and less on in-game action. For instance, in the 2015-2016 college football playoff, the FPI listed the Oklahoma Sooners as the team with the highest chance to win the playoff at 39%, while the Clemson Tigers were listed at third highest at 17%. Clemson went on to beat Oklahoma in the first round and eventually lose to Alabama in the national championship game.
LSU’s 2025 season is shaping up to be a pivotal one. The Tigers are returning several key players, including quarterback Bryce Underwood and running back Harlem Berry, both of whom are expected to have significant impacts on the team’s performance. Additionally, LSU’s defense, under the guidance of defensive coordinator Blake Baker, is poised to be a formidable force. The combination of experienced leadership and emerging talent suggests that LSU could exceed the FPI’s projections.
On the recruiting front, LSU has been making significant strides. The program recently secured commitments from four-star linebacker Charles Ross and five-star wide receiver Tristen Keys. Ross, a Texas native, chose LSU over several other programs, citing the strong relationship he developed with the coaching staff and the opportunity to play in the SEC. Keys, the No. 1 wide receiver in the 2026 class, committed to LSU after a standout performance in the Under Armour All-America Game. His decision to join the Tigers bolsters an already impressive recruiting clas
These commitments are part of a broader trend of LSU’s success on the recruiting trail. The Tigers have been actively pursuing top-tier talent, hosting numerous official and unofficial visits, and building strong relationships with prospective players. This proactive approach has positioned LSU as a contender for several high-profile recruits in the 2025 and 2026 classes
In conclusion, while ESPN’s FPI projects LSU to win approximately 10 games in the upcoming season, this assessment may not fully account for the team’s depth, experience, and recent recruiting successes. With a talented roster and a strong recruiting class, LSU has the potential to exceed these projections and make a significant impact in the college football landscape.
