Auburn football is back in the national conversation, and this time, the buzz is not coming from an underdog story or a surprise upset. Instead, it stems from data, projections, and metrics that favor the Tigers to make serious noise in the upcoming season. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), one of the most respected predictive tools in college football, has cast a favorable spotlight on the Auburn Tigers, and fans on the Plains have every reason to be excited.
The FPI is designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. It accounts for myriad factors, including returning production, recruiting rankings, past performance, and expected future results. For Auburn to rank highly in such a sophisticated model speaks volumes about the work being done behind the scenes by head coach Hugh Freeze and his staff.
Last season, the Tigers showed glimpses of what they could become. Though the final record didn’t reflect national dominance, the flashes were undeniable. Strong showings against top-tier teams, a revived energy around the program, and an infusion of young talent painted the picture of a team on the rise. ESPN’s FPI now validates those signs by suggesting Auburn is closer to returning to national relevance than many expected.
What makes Auburn’s FPI ranking particularly compelling is the context of the SEC landscape. With perennial powers like Alabama and Georgia dominating the spotlight, it’s easy for rising programs to be overlooked. But ESPN’s model doesn’t play favorites. It relies on raw data, and that data is bullish on the Tigers. From their expected win total to their strength of schedule and overall efficiency rating, Auburn checks boxes that championship-caliber teams often do.
Recruiting has played a massive role in Auburn’s resurgence. The Tigers have not only locked down several elite prospects but also addressed key positional needs through the transfer portal. Hugh Freeze has long been considered one of college football’s best offensive minds, but he’s also proving adept at building a complete roster. ESPN’s FPI seems to acknowledge the depth and balance of Auburn’s team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, where they have reloaded with size, speed, and experience.
One of the most encouraging aspects of the FPI’s outlook is its confidence in Auburn’s ability to compete in big games. The model projects higher win probabilities than expected in several marquee matchups, suggesting the Tigers are closing the gap on the SEC’s elite. Whether it’s the annual Iron Bowl showdown against Alabama or potential clashes with Georgia and LSU, Auburn is no longer viewed as a major underdog. That shift in perception is not just important for fans and analysts—it’s critical for recruiting, morale, and momentum.
Another factor working in Auburn’s favor is quarterback development. For the first time in years, the Tigers appear to have both stability and upside at the quarterback position. The FPI model takes quarterback play seriously when making projections, and the improved outlook under center has likely influenced Auburn’s elevated status. With an offensive line that has shown improvement and a backfield loaded with talent, the pieces are in place for Auburn to be explosive.
Defense wins championships, and the FPI recognizes Auburn’s potential on that side of the ball. Returning starters in key positions, smart additions from the transfer portal, and a scheme that allows athletes to thrive all point toward a unit that can keep the Tigers in games. In a league where explosive offenses have become the norm, the ability to limit damage and create turnovers will be a major advantage.
Team chemistry and leadership also play a crucial role, though harder to quantify. Still, the FPI reflects internal metrics that attempt to gauge cohesion and locker room stability, and Auburn scores well here too. Players have spoken publicly about a renewed sense of purpose and accountability within the program. From offseason workouts to spring ball, there is a shared belief that something special is brewing on the Plains.
Hugh Freeze deserves a significant amount of credit. In just a short time, he has reshaped the culture, injected new life into the fanbase, and delivered real results on the recruiting trail. ESPN’s Football Power Index doesn’t rely on narrative, but it’s hard to ignore the impact a coach can have on a program’s trajectory. Freeze has proven he can win at the highest level, and now he has the tools and support to do so at Auburn.
Of course, projections are not guarantees. Auburn still has to prove it on the field. But there’s a different energy around this team—a mix of hunger, talent, and belief. The FPI’s endorsement only adds fuel to the fire. It’s a sign that Auburn is not just dreaming about being back in the mix; it’s a sign that they are already knocking on the door.
The FPI also reinforces the idea that Auburn’s schedule, while tough, is manageable. Early-season matchups offer opportunities to build momentum, and if the Tigers can navigate the first half of the season successfully, the back stretch sets up well for a serious run. Every game in the SEC is a battle, but the data suggests Auburn is better positioned to win those battles than they’ve been in recent years.
Perhaps most importantly, ESPN’s Football Power Index provides validation. For a program that has endured ups and downs in recent years, seeing their name near the top of a respected analytical model is a powerful statement. It tells players, coaches, and fans alike that the work is paying off. It sends a message to recruits that Auburn is a program on the rise. And it reminds the college football world that the Tigers should never be counted out.
As the season approaches, expectations will continue to rise. That’s part of the territory when a team receives national recognition. The challenge now is to meet, or even exceed, those expectations. But for Auburn, that challenge is welcomed. The Tigers are ready to embrace the pressure, to seize the opportunity, and to turn potential into performance.
In many ways, this is the perfect storm. A talented roster, a respected coach, a passionate fanbase, and now, the backing of one of the most trusted models in college football. Auburn has been here before—on the cusp of something big. And if ESPN’s Football Power Index is any indication, they are ready to do it again.
The 2025 college football season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. With storylines ranging from conference realignment to Heisman hopefuls, there’s no shortage of drama. But nestled among the noise is a familiar roar. It’s the sound of Auburn football rising again. And this time, it’s not just hope. It’s data-backed confidence.
Auburn has always thrived as a program with something to prove. Whether it’s taking down giants or rising from adversity, the Tigers have built a legacy on resilience. Now, with the Football Power Index on their side, they are no longer chasing respect—they’re earning it. The road ahead is not easy, but for the first time in years, it feels like the path is clear.
So as fall approaches and the lights shine down on Jordan-Hare Stadium, the stakes will be high, the competition fierce, and the expectations even higher. But this Auburn team is built for the moment. They’re armed with talent, driven by belief, and supported by numbers that say they belong.
It’s more than a projection. It’s a statement. ESPN’s Football Power Index likes Auburn. And the rest of college football should take notice.
