In these two statistics, Alabama enjoys a substantial edge over Duke.

In these two statistics, Alabama enjoys a substantial edge over Duke.

Duke has an advantage over Alabama men’s basketball in just about every advanced statistical category from KenPom.

Offensive efficiency. Defensive efficiency. Turnovers. Offensive rebounding. It goes on and on. Even in stats where Alabama’s elite, Duke’s either at the same level or slightly better.

The Blue Devils are a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and the No. 1 overall team in KenPom. So, it’s not a surprise they rank well in most stats.

Alabama doesn’t have many statistical edges. But not all hope is lost. There are two ways the Crimson Tide hold a significant advantage over Duke.

Here’s a closer look at each of those two areas before No. 1 seed Duke and No. 2 seed Alabama face off in the Elite Eight on Saturday (7:49 p.m. CT, truTV or TBS) at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.

Advantage 1: Strength of schedule

This is why Nate Oats schedules as tough as he does. It prepares the Crimson Tide for moments like this.

Alabama has the No. 1 strength of schedule of any team in the country, per KenPom. Duke ranks No. 57.

Alabama has faced all of KenPom’s top five teams other than Duke. The Crimson Tide has played No. 2 Florida twice, No. 3 Houston once, No. 4 Auburn twice and No. 5 Tennessee once. And that’s just the top end of the tough schedule.

“I think playing those other teams has prepped us to play a game of this caliber,” Oats said. “Obviously they’re different. Nobody had Cooper Flagg. Nobody has got the rim protection that Khaman Maluach has. But those other teams did things well.”

The only KenPom top 10 team Duke has faced: Auburn.

The Blue Devils have played seven games against teams ranked in the top 25 of KenPom. Alabama has played 15.

That doesn’t mean the Crimson Tide’s a better team. But it does mean Alabama’s more battle tested.

“There’s an intensity and a focus and a level of preparation that comes with playing teams of that caliber,” Oats said, “and we’ve done that before and I think we’ve been right in those games and done pretty well in most of them.”

Advantage 2: Experience

Mark Sears remembered the San Diego State game. The night, two years ago, when Alabama had the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament but lost to No. 5 seed San Diego State in the Sweet 16.

Alabama started two freshman in that game: Brandon Miller and Noah Clowney. Plus Jaden Bradley played a good bit. Meanwhile, San Diego State had one of the most experienced rosters in college basketball in 2023. It ranked 21st in Division I experience.

“We had a lot of young guys on that team including me,” Sears said. “San Diego State, they were an older group. Their physicality really played a factor in that game. We were surprised. I would say having that veteran leadership is definitely big in this era of college basketball.”

Now Alabama’s more so in San Diego State’s spot. The 2025 Crimson Tide has one of the oldest rosters in college basketball. Alabama’s average Division I experience, per KenPom: 2.99 years. That ranks ninth nationally.

“We’ve been there before, so we know the feeling of playing at that level,” Mouhamed Dioubate said. “The pressure and everything like that. It really helps you. Experience is a thing when it comes to basketball, especially in college. That could give us an edge tomorrow.”

 

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