The buzz around Knoxville is building once again. With spring football wrapped and summer workouts underway, attention has shifted to projections and expectations for the fall—and Tennessee fans have their eyes locked on one key number: the updated win total for the 2025 season.
After a rollercoaster 2024 campaign that ended with a respectable but unspectacular 9-4 record, the Volunteers are looking to take another step forward in 2025 under head coach Josh Heupel. The updated Las Vegas win total for Tennessee now sits at 9.5 wins, according to multiple sportsbooks. It’s a clear sign that the betting markets expect the Vols to remain a force in the SEC and potentially contend for a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff.
On paper, there’s good reason for optimism. The Volunteers return key pieces on both sides of the ball, most notably quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who now enters his first full season as the undisputed starter. After flashing elite potential late last season—including a standout performance in the Citrus Bowl win over Iowa—Iamaleava has drawn comparisons to some of college football’s recent greats. His rocket arm, mobility, and calm demeanor under pressure give Tennessee a legitimate weapon under center.
Backing him up is a loaded skill group. Running back Dylan Sampson is back after rushing for over 1,000 yards, and the wide receiver room remains explosive with Bru McCoy returning to full health and freshman phenom Mike Matthews expected to make an immediate impact. The offensive line, long a question mark in Knoxville, appears improved as well, bolstered by transfers and the development of several underclassmen who earned valuable reps last year.
Defensively, the Vols made strides last season and return a solid nucleus. Linebacker Arion Carter is expected to anchor the middle, and the defensive front is deep, experienced, and disruptive. The secondary, which has been a weak link in recent years, is showing signs of life with the emergence of young corners and the return of senior safety Wesley Walker.
The 9.5 win total is especially intriguing when you consider the schedule. Tennessee opens the season against Chattanooga, a game that should be a comfortable win. The Vols then face NC State in Charlotte in a neutral-site showdown that could set the tone for the season. A non-conference date with Kent State follows before the SEC gauntlet begins.
Tennessee hosts Florida in Week 4—a rivalry that always carries weight, even as the Gators continue their rebuild. The Vols also get Alabama at home this year, a critical edge after last year’s painful road loss in Tuscaloosa. Away trips to Georgia and Oklahoma loom large, and it’s those two matchups that could define whether Tennessee hits the over on 9.5 or falls short.
The good news for Tennessee? The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format rewards teams that can weather a loss or two while still proving consistent over the course of the season. An 11-1 or even 10-2 campaign could earn the Vols a postseason bid, making every regular-season game more meaningful—and every prediction more scrutinized.
There’s also momentum off the field. Heupel’s recruiting efforts continue to bear fruit, with Tennessee bringing in another top-10 class headlined by five-star offensive lineman David Sanders Jr. and defensive end Jared Smith. The culture inside the locker room is reportedly strong, and veteran leadership has played a key role in keeping the program focused and aligned.
That said, hitting the over on 9.5 wins won’t come easy. The SEC is deeper than ever, especially with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma to the conference mix this year. A late-season stretch that includes road games at Missouri and Georgia could test the Vols’ depth, especially if injuries strike.
Much will depend on the play of Iamaleava. If he delivers on the hype and stays healthy, Tennessee has the pieces to push for 10 or 11 wins—and perhaps more. If growing pains emerge or the defense takes a step back, the Volunteers could find themselves battling to simply match last year’s record.
Still, there’s no denying the confidence around the program. Coaches, players, and fans believe this is a team built for more than just moral victories or mid-tier bowl games. The 9.5 win total reflects not only what’s possible but what’s expected in Knoxville. Anything less than a 10-win season could feel like a missed opportunity for a program that’s hungry to return to national prominence.
As the summer rolls on and the countdown to kickoff begins, Tennessee football finds itself in a familiar position—under the microscope, with sky-high hopes and a target on its back. But that’s exactly how the Volunteers like it. And if they can rise to the challenge, that 9.5 projection might not just be a number—it could be a stepping stone to something much bigger.