LSU vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for SEC Tournament First Round
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) Men’s Basketball Tournament is set to feature an intriguing first-round matchup between the No. 10 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs and the No. 15 seed Louisiana State University (LSU) Tigers. Scheduled for Wednesday, March 12, 2025, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, this game offers both teams a chance to reset their seasons and make a potential run in the tournament.
Season Overview
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs began the season with promise, maintaining a spot in the AP Top 25 for 11 weeks and reaching as high as No. 14. However, they faced challenges down the stretch, losing four of their final five regular-season games. Despite this, Mississippi State finished with a respectable 20-11 overall record and a 7-9 mark against Quad 1 opponents, showcasing their ability to compete against top-tier teams.
LSU Tigers
The Tigers have struggled throughout the season, culminating in a five-game losing streak entering the tournament. They concluded the regular season with a 14-17 overall record and a 3-15 record in SEC play, with 10 of those losses by double digits. Offensive inconsistencies have plagued LSU, as they rank second-to-last in the SEC in scoring during conference play, averaging 67.0 points per game, and just 61.8 points per game during their current skid.
Key Players to Watch
Mississippi State Bulldogs
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Josh Hubbard (Guard, Freshman): Hubbard has been a standout performer, averaging 18.3 points per game and earning All-SEC second-team honors. His ability to penetrate defenses and score efficiently makes him a focal point of the Bulldogs’ offense.
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Cameron Matthews (Forward, Junior): Matthews anchors the Bulldogs’ defense, earning a spot on the SEC All-Defensive Team. His versatility allows him to guard multiple positions, and his defensive prowess will be crucial in containing LSU’s offensive threats.
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LSU Tigers
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Camryn Carter (Guard, Sophomore): Carter leads the Tigers in scoring, averaging 16.5 points per game. His offensive output is vital for LSU, especially given their recent scoring struggles.
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Jordan Sears (Guard, Senior): Despite battling an ankle injury, Sears has been a bright spot for LSU, notably scoring 21 points against Texas A&M in their regular-season finale. His experience and leadership are invaluable for the Tigers as they navigate the tournament.
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Betting Odds and Predictions
According to recent odds, Mississippi State is favored by 8.5 points, with a moneyline of -425, while LSU stands at +320. The over/under for the game is set at 147.5 points.
Analysts suggest that while Mississippi State has the upper hand, LSU’s potential to cover the spread should not be overlooked. The Tigers have gone 9-5 SU and 10-4 ATS when Carter scores at least 17 points, indicating that his performance could be a determining factor.
Previous Meeting
The two teams faced off on March 1, 2025, with Mississippi State securing an 81-69 victory. In that game, the Bulldogs dominated the paint, shooting 83% and recording seven blocks. Josh Hubbard led the charge with 30 points, exploiting LSU’s defensive lapses.
Keys to the Game
Mississippi State Bulldogs
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Defensive Intensity: Maintaining their defensive identity, led by Matthews, will be crucial in disrupting LSU’s rhythm.
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Utilizing Hubbard’s Scoring: Ensuring Hubbard gets quality looks early can set the tone for the Bulldogs’ offense.
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Capitalizing on Turnovers: Forcing LSU into mistakes and converting those into transition points can widen the scoring gap.
LSU Tigers
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Establish Offensive Rhythm: Finding consistency in their shooting, especially beyond the arc, is essential.
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Support for Key Players: Role players stepping up to alleviate the scoring burden on Carter and Sears can diversify their attack.
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Perimeter Defense: Contesting Mississippi State’s shooters and limiting open looks will be vital in keeping the game close.
While Mississippi State enters the matchup as the favorite, LSU has the potential to challenge the Bulldogs if they address their offensive inconsistencies and tighten their defense. The SEC Tournament often brings unexpected outcomes, and both teams will be eager to extend their postseason journeys.