The 2025 edition of March Madness has brought excitement, drama, and elite basketball performances, but for sports bettors, one trend stands out above all: it’s been a while since we’ve had a true underdog bark. While upsets are usually the hallmark of the NCAA Tournament, this year’s bracket has unfolded in a way that has largely favored the favorites, leaving bettors who thrive on chaos searching for the Cinderella story that never quite materialized.
Historically, March Madness has been synonymous with unpredictability. Bettors have come to expect at least one double-digit seed to make a deep run, busting brackets and cashing in for those who had faith in the underdog. However, 2025 has seen a different pattern emerge, with top-seeded teams holding firm and avoiding the pitfalls that have plagued their predecessors in years past. The lack of major upsets has been a double-edged sword for sportsbooks and bettors alike, creating a unique betting landscape that has defied expectations.
One of the biggest storylines of this tournament has been the dominance of No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. In a typical year, at least one top seed falls early, providing value for those willing to back a plucky mid-major or an overlooked power conference team. This year, however, favorites have not only survived but thrived, covering spreads at a higher-than-usual rate and rewarding those who played it safe with moneyline bets on the top teams. While this has been great for conservative bettors, those who thrive on long-shot futures and big-money underdog plays have been left wanting more.
The betting data tells the story. Against-the-spread (ATS) records have overwhelmingly favored higher-seeded teams, particularly in the first and second rounds. Double-digit underdogs, who traditionally have provided some of the best betting value, have struggled to even keep games close, let alone pull off outright wins. The result has been a tournament where chalk bettors—those who favor the higher seeds—have found themselves in the rare position of consistently winning early-round bets.
One of the main reasons for this trend can be attributed to the strength of the top teams. Unlike in previous years where there were clear vulnerabilities among the highest-ranked squads, the 2025 tournament field featured dominant teams that had already been battle-tested throughout the regular season. Their experience, depth, and ability to execute in high-pressure situations made them less susceptible to early-round upsets. In contrast, the mid-majors and lower-seeded power conference teams that typically emerge as bracket busters lacked the same level of firepower and struggled to keep up.
Another factor contributing to the lack of underdog success has been the increased parity among major conference teams. In recent years, the gap between the top and bottom of power conferences has widened, making it more difficult for mid-majors to compete with elite programs. While mid-majors have thrived in past tournaments by catching power teams off guard, 2025 has seen top teams enter the tournament more prepared, better coached, and less likely to succumb to the early-round pressure that has historically led to surprising exits.
The impact on betting markets has been significant. Many sportsbooks have reported lower-than-usual payouts on moneyline bets due to the lack of upset victories. Futures markets, which typically see heavy action on mid-range seeds making deep runs, have also been affected, with far fewer long-shot tickets cashing in compared to previous years. While favorites winning is generally good for sportsbooks, the lack of Cinderella stories has led to a different kind of challenge—less variance in betting outcomes means fewer wild swings, which can sometimes limit overall betting volume and engagement.
For live betting, the trend has been particularly noticeable. Typically, in March Madness, bettors love to take underdogs when they’re keeping a game close or when a favorite gets off to a slow start. This year, however, favorites have quickly asserted control in most games, making it difficult for live bettors to find value in backing a potential upset. The usual volatility of March Madness has been replaced with a more predictable tournament, at least through the first few rounds.
That’s not to say that every game has been a blowout. There have still been thrilling finishes and dramatic moments, but the teams expected to win have consistently found ways to close out games. In years past, buzzer-beaters from underdogs have been a staple of the tournament, flipping betting results in an instant. This year, those moments have been scarce, as top teams have executed well in crunch time, avoiding the last-second chaos that often defines March Madness.
The betting landscape may still shift as the tournament progresses. As we head into the Final Four, the question becomes whether this trend will continue or if we will finally see an underdog make some noise. The later rounds of the tournament historically favor the best teams, but occasionally, a lower-seeded squad finds a way to break through. Bettors looking for value may still have opportunities, particularly if a strong defensive team can disrupt the offensive rhythm of a title favorite.
Looking ahead, one area where bettors might find an edge is in totals betting. With favorites controlling the pace of games and playing more disciplined basketball, unders have hit at a higher-than-expected rate. Defensive efficiency has been a key factor in this tournament, as elite teams have locked down opponents, preventing the high-scoring shootouts that typically lead to overs cashing. If this trend continues, totals bettors may continue to profit by leaning towards the under in games featuring defensively dominant teams.
Additionally, player prop betting has been an area where sharp bettors have found success. With top teams consistently winning, star players have had the opportunity to shine, often hitting their point, rebound, and assist totals. Bettors who have focused on player performance rather than team outcomes have been able to find value, particularly in matchups where elite players have favorable matchups against weaker defenses.
Ultimately, while this year’s tournament has lacked the usual underdog magic, it has still provided plenty of compelling storylines. The dominance of the top seeds has reinforced the importance of talent, coaching, and preparation in the NCAA Tournament. For bettors, the lesson from 2025 may be that while upsets are fun to root for, sometimes, backing the best teams is the smartest strategy.
As the tournament concludes, there is still time for a shocking result to shake things up, but for now, the trend is clear—favorites are winning, and underdogs are struggling to make their mark. It’s been a while since we’ve had a true Cinderella story, but that doesn’t mean this year’s March Madness is any less thrilling. Whether betting on the remaining games or simply enjoying the action, one thing is certain: this tournament continues to be one of the most exciting events in all of sports.