Mo’s Musings: Do You Pick Your Brackets with Your Heart or Your Head?

Ah, the NCAA Tournament—that annual spectacle of buzzer-beaters, Cinderella stories, and, of course, the much-anticipated bracketology that takes over your social media feed and conversations in the days leading up to the big event. Whether you’re an avid basketball fan, a casual observer, or just someone who enjoys the thrill of filling out a bracket to see how well you can predict the madness, one of the most age-old questions when it comes to choosing your winners is: Do you pick your bracket with your heart, or with your head?

It’s a question that stirs debate and invites personal reflection. After all, your bracket is more than just a list of teams you believe will win based on stats or performance—it’s a reflection of your emotions, biases, and the ways you connect to the teams involved. For some, it’s all about making the logical, calculated picks that come from a place of statistical analysis. For others, it’s more about the passion and the joy of rooting for their alma mater or favorite underdog to make a run to the Final Four.

Let’s dive into this classic bracket dilemma. Should you pick with your head, relying on stats and rankings, or with your heart, giving a little extra love to your favorite team or a sentimental underdog? Here’s my take on how both of these approaches play out, and which one may give you an edge when it comes time to fill out your 2025 bracket.

Picking with Your Head: The Logical Approach

When you pick with your head, you’re not letting emotions get in the way. Instead, you lean on data, research, and statistical analysis to guide your decisions. It’s all about breaking down the tournament teams with a cool, calculated approach, and that’s where a lot of people turn to bracketology experts, analysts, and pre-tournament rankings. You focus on key metrics such as team performance, strength of schedule, defensive and offensive efficiency, and player statistics.

The Pros of Picking with Your Head:

Consistency: Statistically speaking, the teams that perform the best during the regular season tend to go the furthest in March Madness. Teams that have high KenPom ratings, strong offensive and defensive efficiency, and solid depth are often the ones to pick in the later rounds. If you pick with your head, you’re choosing teams based on sound reasoning.
Predictable Results: By following trends and team stats, picking with your head gives you a better chance of making logical predictions. Historically, higher-seeded teams do well, and #1 seeds often have the best odds of making it to the Final Four and beyond.
Minimizing Emotional Bias: Picking with your head ensures that you’re not swayed by fandom or emotional attachment. If your alma mater is a #12 seed and has a good chance of beating a #5 seed, your pick is likely to be based on their matchup rather than sheer sentimentality.

The Cons of Picking with Your Head:

Missing Out on the Chaos: Here’s where the madness of March comes into play. The beauty of the tournament is that it’s unpredictable, and upsets happen all the time. While the data may say that the higher seeds have a better chance of advancing, the tournament is known for surprising us—who could have predicted UMBC’s 2018 victory over Virginia, for instance? If you pick solely with your head, you might miss the chance to capitalize on a few Cinderella stories.
Boring Brackets: If you only rely on data and trends, your bracket could end up looking remarkably similar to everyone else’s, which might feel a bit underwhelming when the madness kicks in. If you don’t pick some bold upsets, your bracket may look too predictable and could fall behind the pack.
Overlooking Team Chemistry: Stats only tell part of the story. If a team has great chemistry, momentum, or a breakout player who steps up in the big moments, they might exceed expectations. However, these intangible elements can be difficult to quantify through numbers.

Examples of Head Picks That Make Sense:

Top Seeds: Historically, #1 seeds have the highest odds of making it to the Final Four. If you want to rely on your head, picking the best team in each region makes sense. Teams like Kansas, Duke, and Gonzaga have been strong year after year.
Efficiency Metrics: Teams like Baylor (2021) and Villanova (2016) were statistical juggernauts, boasting strong offensive and defensive ratings across the board. These teams are usually good bets based on statistical models.

Picking with Your Heart: The Emotional Approach

For some fans, March Madness is less about the numbers and more about the emotions and personal connections they have with the teams involved. Picking with your heart means letting passion, loyalty, and sometimes nostalgia guide your selections. Maybe you’re picking your alma mater, your favorite local team, or a program you’ve always admired. Or perhaps you simply want to ride with a scrappy underdog who has captured your attention.

The Pros of Picking with Your Heart:

Rooting for the Underdog: There’s something uniquely thrilling about picking an underdog to make a deep run. Whether it’s a #12 seed pulling off an upset over a #5 seed, or a low-seeded team riding momentum into the Elite Eight, the joy of seeing your underdog pick succeed is priceless. It’s the very essence of March Madness—anything can happen.
Personal Connection: If you have a personal tie to a program—whether it’s a former player from your high school, a coach you admire, or an emotional connection to the team—it’s hard not to let those feelings influence your bracket. As fans, we often attach ourselves to certain teams for reasons that transcend the court, and it’s natural to root for those teams to go far, even if the data suggests otherwise.
Excitement and Surprises: When you pick with your heart, you’re embracing the unpredictability of the tournament. Even if it means picking a #11 seed to make a deep run, there’s something exhilarating about seeing the impossible happen—and if you’ve predicted it, even better. Plus, a Cinderella story is part of what makes March Madness so magical.

The Cons of Picking with Your Heart:

Bias and Overconfidence: Picking with your heart can sometimes lead to blind optimism, and it’s easy to get swept up in the excitement of rooting for your favorite team or alma mater. But, unfortunately, emotions don’t always align with tournament success. A #7 seed might look great to you because of sentimental reasons, but if they’re not statistically positioned to go far, you’re risking a bad pick.
Emotional Disappointment: There’s always the risk that you’ll pick a team based on loyalty or personal feelings, only to see them fall early in the tournament. If you’ve put too much emotional investment into one team, it can sting more when they’re eliminated, and it may throw off your bracket for the rest of the tournament.
Missing the Bigger Picture: Picking with your heart might cloud your judgment, causing you to overlook teams that are objectively stronger or better positioned for success in the tournament. A team with a top 10 defense or elite point guard might not get the love they deserve if you’re too attached to another squad.

Examples of Heart Picks That May Pay Off:

Underdog Runs: Picking a #12 seed to upset a #5 seed has become a tradition in March Madness. The thrill of having a lower-seeded team break through and make a surprise run to the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight is a great feeling, even if the stats say it’s unlikely. Teams like Florida Gulf Coast (2013) and Loyola Chicago (2018) have captivated hearts by pulling off shocking upsets.
Alma Mater/Local Fandom: If you’re a proud graduate of UCLA or North Carolina, picking those teams to go far is just part of the fun. Even though your team might not have the highest seed or the best matchup on paper, you’ll be rooting for them with everything you’ve got.

Balancing Heart and Head

For most people, the best way to approach the NCAA Tournament bracket is not to pick with just one or the other, but rather to find a balance between heart and head. Yes, pick the statistical heavyweights and number-one seeds where it makes sense. But also find a few Cinderella stories that make you feel something, because after all, March Madness isn’t just about numbers—it’s about the heart-pounding excitement of the unknown.

Maybe your bracket has a mix of elite teams that are statistically primed to make deep runs and a few underdogs that you just can’t help but root for. There’s no single right way to approach your picks—what matters is that you enjoy the journey and experience the madness to the fullest.