Paul Finebaum Believes Auburn’s Hugh Freeze Will Know His Fate by October**
The pressure is already mounting for Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze as he enters his second season on the Plains. After a rocky 6-7 debut campaign that ended with a blowout loss to Maryland in the Music City Bowl, expectations are rising—and so is the scrutiny. According to ESPN’s Paul Finebaum, Freeze’s future at Auburn could be decided much sooner than many anticipate. In fact, Finebaum believes that by October, it will be clear whether Freeze is the right man for the job or if Auburn will be forced to make another coaching change.
A Tough First Year for Freeze**
Hugh Freeze arrived at Auburn with a reputation for offensive innovation and program revitalization, having previously turned around Liberty and Ole Miss. However, his first season with the Tigers was far from smooth. Auburn struggled with inconsistency, particularly at quarterback, and failed to secure a single win against a ranked opponent. The offense, which was expected to be explosive under Freeze’s guidance, often looked disjointed, ranking near the bottom of the SEC in passing.
The Tigers’ 6-7 record was a slight improvement from Bryan Harsin’s disastrous 2022 season (5-7), but it wasn’t enough to satisfy a fanbase accustomed to competing at a higher level. Auburn’s losses to teams like New Mexico State (a 31-10 embarrassment at home) and a lopsided bowl defeat raised serious questions about whether Freeze could elevate the program back to national relevance.
### **The Make-or-Break 2024 Season**
This year, the stakes are even higher. Auburn’s administration and boosters have invested heavily in Freeze, not just in his contract but also in roster upgrades through the transfer portal. The Tigers added several key players, including former Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne (who started last season) and high-profile wide receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith from Penn State. The hope is that these additions, along with another year in Freeze’s system, will lead to marked improvement.
However, the schedule does Freeze no favors. Auburn opens with a manageable non-conference slate (Alabama A&M, Cal, and New Mexico) before diving into SEC play. By October, the Tigers will have faced Oklahoma (Sept. 28), at Georgia (Oct. 5), at Missouri (Oct. 19), and vs. Texas A&M (Oct. 26). That stretch could very well define Freeze’s tenure.
Paul Finebaum, known for his sharp analysis of SEC football, recently stated on *The Matt Barrie Show* that Freeze’s fate will likely be sealed by midseason. *”I think by the time we get to October, we’ll know whether Hugh Freeze is going to be the answer at Auburn,”* Finebaum said. *”If they come out of that stretch with multiple blowout losses or another embarrassing performance, the noise will become deafening.”*
### **What Success (or Failure) Looks Like**
For Freeze to secure his job beyond 2024, he likely needs to show tangible progress. That doesn’t necessarily mean winning the SEC West, but it does require:
1. **Competitiveness Against Elite Teams** – Auburn doesn’t have to beat Georgia or Alabama, but they can’t afford to get blown out like they did last year (27-10 to UGA, 49-27 to Bama).
2. **A Bowl-Worthy Season** – A 7-5 or 8-4 record would show improvement and buy Freeze more time.
3. **Offensive Improvement** – The Tigers must develop a more dynamic passing game to complement their strong rushing attack.
On the other hand, if Auburn stumbles early—particularly with another loss to a non-power opponent or multiple blowout SEC defeats—the pressure will intensify rapidly. The Tigers’ fanbase has little patience for mediocrity, and boosters won’t hesitate to push for change if they believe Freeze isn’t the answer.
### **The Shadow of the Buyout**
One factor that could influence Auburn’s decision is Freeze’s buyout. While exact figures aren’t public, it’s believed to be substantial, likely in the range of $25-30 million if fired after this season. However, Auburn has shown in the past (see: Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin) that it’s willing to pay big money to move on from a coach if the situation is dire.
If Freeze can’t deliver at least a respectable season, the financial hit may be seen as a necessary cost to avoid further stagnation.
### **The Alternatives**
If Auburn does move on from Freeze, who could they target? Names like Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin (a former Auburn offensive coordinator), Florida State’s Mike Norvell, or even a rising Group of Five coach like Kalen DeBoer (if Alabama struggles post-Saban) could be in play. The coaching carousel never stops in the SEC, and Auburn will want to act quickly if they decide to make a change.
### **Conclusion: A Defining Season Ahead**
Hugh Freeze is at a crossroads. He has the talent and resources to turn things around, but the early-season schedule is brutal, and the margin for error is slim. As Paul Finebaum suggests, by October, we’ll likely know whether Freeze is building something sustainable at Auburn or if the Tigers will be back on the coaching market sooner than expected.
For Auburn fans, the hope is that Freeze can recapture the magic he once had at Ole Miss and Liberty. But if the Tigers falter early, the calls for change will grow louder—and the administration may have no choice but to listen.
