Paul Finebaum is no stranger to bold proclamations. The longtime ESPN college football analyst has built a reputation for his unapologetic takes, sharp wit, and uncanny ability to stir up conversation among fans across the country. But his latest statement may be among his most daring yet — predicting not just a College Football Playoff berth for the Texas Longhorns, but a deep run that could result in the program’s first national title since 2005. With Texas heading into the 2025 season carrying more expectations than any other team in the country, Finebaum’s take is both a reflection of the Longhorns’ rising momentum and a lightning rod for debate.
Speaking during a recent appearance on The Paul Finebaum Show, the SEC Network host was unequivocal in his assessment of Texas’ chances. “This is the year for the Longhorns,” Finebaum said. “Not only are they getting into the College Football Playoff — I believe they’re built to win the whole thing. They’ve got the quarterback, they’ve got the weapons, and they’ve got the swagger that’s been missing for over a decade. The days of being a punchline are over. Texas is back.”
The bold claim comes at a pivotal moment for the Longhorns, who are officially making their SEC debut in 2025. After years of being stuck in neutral in the Big 12, Texas has begun to resemble the powerhouse it once was under Mack Brown. Last season, Steve Sarkisian’s team posted an impressive 12-2 record, captured the Big 12 title, and narrowly lost to Washington in the College Football Playoff semifinal. It was a campaign that reignited hope in Austin and laid the foundation for what many see as a breakout year ahead.
The optimism is centered around a dynamic and experienced roster led by quarterback Arch Manning, the former No. 1 overall recruit who now enters his sophomore season as the face of Texas football. Manning showed flashes of brilliance in his limited action last year, and with Quinn Ewers declaring for the NFL Draft, the keys to the offense now fully belong to him. Finebaum was quick to highlight the young quarterback’s potential. “He’s got all the tools,” he said. “Size, arm talent, poise, pedigree — everything you look for in a star. And now he’s got the team around him to shine.”
Manning will be working with a supporting cast that rivals any in the nation. The receiving corps is headlined by Isaiah Bond, a lightning-fast transfer from Alabama who’s expected to be a matchup nightmare in the SEC. Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell may be gone to the NFL, but the Longhorns have reloaded with a mix of veteran depth and highly touted freshmen. Add to that a pair of versatile tight ends, a solid offensive line anchored by All-American Kelvin Banks Jr., and a backfield featuring Cedric Baxter Jr. and Jaydon Blue, and you’ve got an offense that could be downright lethal.
But Finebaum didn’t just cite offensive firepower. What excites him most is how balanced this Texas team has become. The Longhorns boast a defense that has quietly turned into one of the SEC’s most underrated units. With linebackers Anthony Hill Jr. and David Gbenda leading the charge and a secondary bolstered by the return of Jahdae Barron and Terrance Brooks, Texas may finally have the kind of physical, disciplined defense needed to win championships in the SEC. The arrival of former Georgia co-defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann only adds more credibility and experience to a group that’s expected to take another step forward.
It’s that balance — and the hunger — that Finebaum believes separates Texas from the rest of the pack. “Georgia is going to be right there. Alabama will always be Alabama. Michigan, Ohio State — they’ll contend too. But Texas? They’ve got that edge right now,” Finebaum said. “It’s almost like they’ve been sitting in the shadows, waiting to remind the world who they are. And once they get rolling, I don’t think anyone will want to see them in the Playoff.”
Of course, predicting success in the SEC — especially in a team’s first year — is easier said than done. Texas faces a gauntlet of a schedule, including road games at LSU and Arkansas, a neutral-site Red River rivalry clash against Oklahoma, and home showdowns against Georgia and Florida. But for Finebaum, those games represent opportunity rather than obstacles. “This is how you build a champion,” he said. “By walking through fire. If they survive that schedule with just one loss — maybe even two — they’re going to be in the Playoff. And by then, they’ll be battle-tested like no one else.”
Finebaum’s comments have understandably set off a flurry of reaction from across the college football landscape. Longhorn fans have embraced the endorsement, pointing to the continued rise of the program under Sarkisian and the unshakable belief that Texas is finally ready to reclaim its seat at the table of college football’s elite. Critics, on the other hand, argue that Texas still hasn’t proven it can consistently win the big games, pointing to close losses and late-season collapses that have plagued the program for much of the past decade.
There’s also the weight of expectation — something that’s often been more burden than blessing for Texas in the past. Ever since Colt McCoy walked off the field injured in the 2009 national title game against Alabama, the Longhorns have been defined by inconsistency, coaching turnover, and unmet promise. For years, “Texas is back” became a national punchline, trotted out whenever the Longhorns showed even the slightest signs of relevance before fading once again.
But Sarkisian, now entering his fifth year at the helm, appears to have changed that narrative. Aided by strong recruiting, savvy portal additions, and a revamped culture centered around player development and accountability, he’s turned Texas into a legitimate contender. He’s also embraced the unique pressure that comes with leading one of the most high-profile programs in the country — something Finebaum believes gives Texas an edge. “There’s a different vibe around this team,” Finebaum said. “You can feel it. They’re not running from expectations anymore. They’re leaning into them.”
The new-look College Football Playoff, which expands to 12 teams in 2025, adds another layer of intrigue. With more spots available and the strength of the SEC schedule likely to bolster Texas’ resume, the path to a championship becomes more plausible. In fact, Finebaum hinted that Texas could benefit greatly from the expanded format. “You give Arch Manning a few more games on the national stage, you give Sark a chance to scheme — that’s dangerous,” he said. “I wouldn’t want to see them in a semifinal or final. They’ll be ready.”
Whether Finebaum’s prediction proves prophetic remains to be seen. College football is a sport defined by chaos, and the SEC is nothing if not unpredictable. Injuries, momentum swings, and the ever-present threat of upsets mean nothing is guaranteed. But there’s no denying the excitement that’s building in Austin — and beyond. The Longhorns aren’t just chasing relevance anymore. They’re chasing rings.
For a fanbase starved for national success and desperate to reclaim its place among the sport’s elite, Finebaum’s words are more than just a hot take. They’re a validation of a belief that’s been quietly building for years. That Texas, after all the stumbles and false starts, really is back. And if the 2025 season unfolds the way Finebaum envisions, the Longhorns won’t just be back — they’ll be champions.