Paul Finebaum has never been one to shy away from bold predictions, and once again, the voice of Southern football has made waves across the college football landscape. In a recent appearance on ESPN, Finebaum delivered a hot take that stunned fans across the nation: he believes a perennial college football powerhouse will not win 10 games this season. And the team in question? The mighty Alabama Crimson Tide.
That’s right. The same Alabama program that has dominated the college football scene for nearly two decades. The same Alabama that has consistently churned out national championships, top NFL Draft picks, and All-Americans. The same Alabama that defined the Nick Saban era with relentless dominance, precision, and unrivaled excellence. But according to Finebaum, the Crimson Tide’s days of predictable 10-plus-win seasons may be over—at least for now.
Finebaum’s statement comes during a moment of transition and uncertainty for the storied program. With the retirement of legendary head coach Nick Saban, Alabama faces a new chapter under former Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer. While DeBoer brings with him an impressive résumé and a reputation as a sharp offensive mind, replacing Saban’s legacy and maintaining Alabama’s staggering standard of success is no easy feat.
“The expectations are too high, the schedule is too brutal, and the SEC is too loaded,” Finebaum explained. “Kalen DeBoer is a great coach, but even great coaches need time. This is Alabama, yes—but it’s a new Alabama. And the road to 10 wins just got a lot bumpier.”
It’s not the first time Finebaum has rattled the cage of college football fans, but this prediction feels different. It strikes at the heart of a fanbase that has grown accustomed to dominance. Alabama hasn’t missed the 10-win mark in a regular season since 2007—Saban’s first year. Since then, they’ve been the gold standard, reaching double-digit wins year after year, playing in countless College Football Playoff games, and hoisting six national championship trophies during that span.
Yet Finebaum insists 2025 will be different. He points to a number of factors contributing to his outlook—starting with the quarterback position. With Jalen Milroe departing for the NFL after a standout 2024 campaign, the Tide are left with inexperience and question marks under center. While talented quarterbacks like Ty Simpson and Dylan Lonergan are expected to battle for the starting role, neither has proven himself on the biggest stage. And in the SEC, uncertainty at quarterback often spells trouble.
Then there’s the schedule. Alabama’s 2025 slate is nothing short of brutal. Road trips to LSU, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin loom large, while matchups with Georgia, Tennessee, and Auburn will test the Tide’s mettle week after week. The SEC’s move to a division-less format has done no favors for Alabama, who will now face a rotating cast of the conference’s best without the buffer of an easier divisional lineup.
“There’s no break,” Finebaum said. “There’s no stretch where you look and say, ‘That’s three easy wins right there.’ Every week is a war, and with a new coach, a new quarterback, and a roster that lost a lot of NFL talent, I just don’t see 10 wins on this schedule.”
The roster turnover is another reason Finebaum remains skeptical. Alabama saw a significant exodus to the NFL Draft and the transfer portal after Saban’s departure. Players who may have stayed another year under the legendary coach chose to move on, leaving DeBoer with the task of rebuilding both depth and leadership. While Alabama remains loaded with blue-chip talent, the experience gap is hard to ignore.
And then there’s the intangible factor—something even stats and recruiting rankings can’t quantify. The aura of invincibility that surrounded Alabama for years was largely built on Saban’s presence. His meticulous attention to detail, his demanding culture, his mastery of preparation—it created a machine that few could match. Without him on the sideline, Finebaum wonders whether that edge disappears.
“It’s not just about the plays or the players. It’s about the presence. Nick Saban made Alabama feared. Opposing teams knew they had to be perfect to even compete. That psychological advantage is gone now,” Finebaum said. “DeBoer might eventually get there, but not in Year One.”
Predictably, Finebaum’s comments sparked a firestorm among Alabama fans, many of whom took to social media to defend their program and their new head coach. Some accused Finebaum of being overly dramatic. Others claimed he was simply trying to stir up controversy. But there were also those who admitted that, for the first time in a long while, they weren’t sure what to expect.
And that may be the most telling aspect of all—uncertainty. Alabama fans are not used to feeling uncertain. For nearly two decades, they’ve woken up every fall Saturday with the confident expectation of a win. They’ve expected to beat their rivals, expected to make the playoff, and expected to contend for national titles. Now, with a new coach, a new quarterback, and a revamped SEC, those expectations feel less like a guarantee and more like a question mark.
Finebaum, for his part, remains unfazed by the backlash. He insists his prediction isn’t rooted in bias or hyperbole, but in realism.
“Ten wins is still possible,” he said. “But for Alabama, that used to be the floor. Now, I think it’s closer to the ceiling.”
It’s a sobering take, especially for a fanbase that has grown to equate success with dominance. But perhaps there’s also a silver lining. Every dynasty must evolve. Every powerhouse must navigate transition. And for Alabama, this may simply be the necessary growing pain of passing the torch.
Kalen DeBoer, by all accounts, is up for the challenge. His work at Washington, Fresno State, and Sioux Falls speaks for itself. He’s a winner. He’s a builder. And he understands the stakes. While the shadow of Nick Saban looms large, DeBoer is determined to carve his own path and maintain Alabama’s status as a national contender.
Still, even DeBoer would likely admit that the road ahead won’t be easy. The SEC is deeper and more competitive than ever. Programs like Georgia, LSU, Texas, and Oklahoma have no intention of yielding ground. And the margin for error is razor-thin. A single turnover, a blown coverage, a missed field goal—that could be the difference between 10-2 and 9-3.
Finebaum’s take may seem pessimistic to some, but perhaps it’s simply a reflection of how competitive college football has become. Parity is rising. The days of one or two programs dominating the landscape may be fading. And while Alabama still commands respect, it now finds itself in a position it hasn’t known in years: having to prove it belongs at the top.
The 2025 season will tell us a lot. About DeBoer. About Alabama’s resilience. About whether the dynasty can sustain itself in a post-Saban world. But one thing is certain—Paul Finebaum’s prediction has set the tone. The spotlight is shining brightly on Tuscaloosa, and the pressure is back where Alabama has always seemed to thrive.
