Paul Finebaum, one of the most respected and outspoken voices in college football, has once again stirred the pot in a way only he can. Known for his no-holds-barred commentary and deep connections within the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and beyond, Finebaum recently made headlines by identifying a major college football coach he believes could be fired in 2025—a bold prediction that sent shockwaves through the fanbases of some of the sport’s most prominent programs.
Appearing on a national sports talk show earlier this week, Finebaum didn’t hesitate when asked which head coach is under the most pressure heading into the upcoming season. “I think there’s a very real chance we see a coaching change at one of the top programs in the country,” he said. “You look around the landscape, and a few names pop up, but there’s one that really stands out—and I don’t think fans are going to like hearing it.”
According to Finebaum, the coach in question is Texas A&M’s Mike Elko. Though Elko just recently took over the reins in College Station, Finebaum believes the Aggies’ lofty expectations and lack of patience could place the new head coach on an extremely short leash—despite his reputation as a top-tier defensive mind and promising program builder. Elko, who replaced Jimbo Fisher after a tumultuous tenure that ended in a massive buyout, was heralded as the right hire to steer the Aggies into a new era. But Finebaum warns that the pressure cooker in College Station hasn’t cooled down—and could boil over quickly if results don’t come fast.
“Texas A&M boosters are not in the business of waiting five years for a rebuild,” Finebaum said. “They’re expecting results yesterday, and if Elko stumbles early, the pressure is going to mount rapidly. Remember, this is a school that paid nearly $77 million to move on from Fisher. That tells you everything you need to know about their expectations.”
While Finebaum’s comments initially sparked disbelief, a closer look at the Aggies’ current situation reveals why his prediction might not be as far-fetched as it sounds. Elko inherits a talented roster, but one that has underperformed for years. The program has struggled to find consistency on offense, and despite regular top-10 recruiting classes, Texas A&M has failed to crack the College Football Playoff or even win the SEC West. The fanbase, flush with resources and pride, has grown restless.
The 2025 season will be a pivotal one, especially considering the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format. That change should theoretically benefit a program like Texas A&M, which has hovered just outside the playoff picture in recent years. But with opportunity comes pressure. The Aggies will have no excuse for missing out under the new system, and Elko will be expected to deliver immediate results, despite this being only his second year at the helm.
Finebaum also pointed to the cutthroat nature of the modern coaching carousel as a factor. With NIL money, the transfer portal, and new television deals reshaping the sport, major programs are less inclined than ever to be patient. Coaches now operate in a high-risk, high-reward environment where even short-term slumps can lead to firings—regardless of potential or long-term vision.
“In this era, you either win fast or you’re out,” Finebaum said. “Mike Elko is a great football mind, but at a place like Texas A&M, great isn’t always good enough. If he doesn’t have that team in playoff contention by year two, I wouldn’t be shocked if the administration starts looking around.”
Still, some fans and analysts were surprised Finebaum singled out Elko rather than coaches who have been entrenched longer or whose hot seats have been more widely discussed. Names like Billy Napier at Florida, Brent Venables at Oklahoma, and even Ryan Day at Ohio State have been frequent topics of speculation, but Finebaum insists Elko faces unique pressure because of the situation he’s walking into—one that involves massive expectations and very little margin for error.
“Billy Napier is definitely under pressure, but Florida’s in a different stage of its rebuild. Oklahoma just joined the SEC. As for Ryan Day, yes, there’s tension there, but he’s won a ton of games. The Elko situation is different. He’s new, yes, but he’s also got no grace period,” Finebaum explained. “He’s expected to win now.”
Interestingly, Finebaum’s comments sparked a divided response among Aggie fans. Some were quick to defend Elko, citing his successful run at Duke, his familiarity with the program from his time as Fisher’s defensive coordinator, and his immediate steps to reinvigorate team culture. Others, however, acknowledged the reality that the SEC is an unforgiving place, and that a few early losses could turn up the temperature quickly.
“It’s hard to disagree,” one fan wrote on social media. “This fanbase wants championships. If Elko can’t get us there quickly, we’ll be looking for the next guy in no time.”
Others pushed back more forcefully. “This is typical Finebaum stirring the pot. Elko’s one of the smartest hires we’ve made in years. We need to give him time. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither is a national title contender.”
Whether Finebaum’s prediction proves prophetic remains to be seen, but the mere fact that it’s being discussed speaks volumes about the state of college football today. Head coaches at top programs no longer enjoy multi-year rebuild windows. Instead, they are expected to compete at the highest level immediately—especially in the ultra-competitive SEC, where one down year can cost you your job and where patience is often a luxury no one can afford.
Finebaum also hinted that other coaches could find themselves in trouble if things go south in 2025. Though he didn’t name them specifically, many believe he was referencing Michigan State’s Jonathan Smith, Arkansas’ Sam Pittman, and even Penn State’s James Franklin—coaches whose performances over the next 12 months will be closely scrutinized.
“There are going to be changes. That’s inevitable,” Finebaum said. “This isn’t just about one coach. It’s about a landscape that’s changing rapidly. Expectations have skyrocketed across the board, and schools aren’t waiting around for results.”
Still, the spotlight remains firmly on Elko and Texas A&M for now. The Aggies have the talent. They have the resources. They have the facilities. What they haven’t had is the right formula to break through the elite ceiling that separates good programs from true contenders. Elko is being asked to find that formula—and do so quickly.
The schedule won’t do him any favors. Texas A&M is slated to face a brutal SEC slate in 2025, including matchups against Alabama, Georgia, Texas, and LSU. Any misstep in those games could significantly impact Elko’s standing with both the fanbase and the administration. Finebaum believes that the tipping point could come early—especially if the Aggies fail to show clear improvement in the first month of the season.
“Look, if he starts the season 1–3 or even 2–2 with blowout losses, I wouldn’t be shocked if the whispers start immediately,” he said. “That’s the kind of pressure we’re talking about here.”
Of course, Finebaum has been wrong before. His predictions, while often rooted in deep analysis, are not infallible. But his track record of identifying trouble spots and simmering tensions is strong, and his willingness to say what others won’t is what makes him such a compelling figure in the world of college football commentary.
For Elko, the best way to silence the noise will be with results. Wins, especially against top opponents, would go a long way in buying him more time and support. A New Year’s Six bowl appearance—or even a dark horse run in the playoff—would immediately elevate his standing and validate the decision to hire him.
But Finebaum’s warning stands as a reminder of just how quickly things can change in today’s college football environment. One day you’re hailed as the next big thing; the next, you’re on the hot seat.
In the end, only time will tell whether Finebaum’s prediction about Mike Elko comes true. But one thing is certain: the 2025 college football season just got a whole lot more intriguing—and a lot more pressure-packed for one coach in College Station.
