Three Things to Keep an Eye on in Alabama Basketball vs. Saint Mary’s in the NCAA Tournament

As the NCAA Tournament continues to heat up, few matchups are as intriguing as the second-round clash between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Saint Mary’s Gaels. With both teams showcasing strengths that could lead them to a deep tournament run, this game is sure to be a test of contrasting styles. Alabama, known for their high-flying offense and up-tempo play, faces off against the disciplined, defensive-oriented Saint Mary’s, a team that is used to playing a more methodical and calculated game.

For fans, coaches, and analysts alike, this game is full of potential storylines and key moments that could make all the difference. Here are three critical elements to keep an eye on as Alabama takes on Saint Mary’s in the NCAA Tournament.

1. Brandon Miller’s Impact on the Game

Why It Matters:

When it comes to Alabama basketball, the conversation inevitably begins with Brandon Miller. The freshman sensation has been nothing short of spectacular this season, earning accolades and attention as one of the top NBA draft prospects in college basketball. Miller’s ability to score from all three levels—driving to the basket, shooting the three-pointer, and finishing in transition—makes him one of the most versatile players in the country. He’s not just a scorer, though; Miller’s athleticism, length, and defensive prowess give Alabama a true two-way player who can change the course of a game.

Miller will likely be the focal point of the Saint Mary’s defense, as the Gaels will do everything they can to contain his offensive outbursts. For Saint Mary’s, stopping Miller would not only force Alabama to rely more on their secondary scorers but also limit the Crimson Tide’s ability to stretch the floor and dictate the tempo.

What to Watch:

• How Saint Mary’s Defends Miller: The Gaels are known for their disciplined defense, but slowing down someone like Miller requires special attention. Saint Mary’s may throw different defenders at him, perhaps using a combination of Logan Johnson (their best perimeter defender) and help from the big men down low. Keep an eye on how Saint Mary’s plans to trap Miller on screens or make him work for every point.
• Miller’s Versatility: The most dangerous aspect of Miller’s game is his ability to do everything. Even if Saint Mary’s can limit his shooting, he can attack the rim, grab rebounds, and set up teammates. Watch for how Miller adjusts his game as Saint Mary’s tries to neutralize his three-point shooting. Does he move inside, trying to draw fouls and create more opportunities for his teammates?
• Impact on Tempo: If Miller is scoring efficiently, Alabama will be able to push the pace and get out in transition, which is their strength. But if Saint Mary’s can stifle him, they’ll likely slow down the game and make it a grind. Miller’s success—or struggles—could dictate how fast or slow the game moves.

Prediction:

Given Miller’s all-around talent and ability to make plays, it’s likely he will have a major impact on this game, either by scoring or facilitating. Even if Saint Mary’s manages to contain him, Alabama has other weapons that could take over. However, if Miller can get going early, it could spell trouble for the Gaels.

2. Saint Mary’s Defensive Strategy and Tempo Control

Why It Matters:

Saint Mary’s is not a team that is going to overwhelm opponents with fast-break points or high-scoring affairs. Instead, the Gaels thrive on their defense and methodical offensive approach, seeking to control the pace of the game and limit the number of possessions. In this matchup, they’ll look to do exactly that—slow the game down and force Alabama to execute in the half court, where the Crimson Tide are less comfortable.

Randy Bennett, the long-time head coach of Saint Mary’s, has built a program around the principles of defensive discipline, ball control, and low-scoring, efficient offense. While the Gaels have offensive weapons of their own, their defensive ability has allowed them to stay competitive against high-powered teams throughout the season.

What to Watch:

• Possession Control: Saint Mary’s will try to limit the number of possessions in the game. This could be achieved through a slow tempo, effective shot selection, and preventing Alabama from getting fast-break opportunities. Pay attention to how the Gaels manage their possessions and whether they are able to keep the scoreline in their favor by working the clock.
• Defensive Matchups: The Gaels’ defense has been suffocating throughout the season, and Logan Johnson will likely be tasked with guarding Brandon Miller. Johnson’s ability to stay in front of Miller and limit his touches will be a key factor in the Gaels’ success. Additionally, Mitchell Saxen and Alex Ducas could have important roles in defending Alabama’s athletic bigs and helping on ball screens.
• Slowing Down Alabama’s Fast Break: Alabama is one of the top teams in the country when it comes to playing in transition. The Crimson Tide thrive on forcing turnovers and getting easy baskets before the defense can set up. If Saint Mary’s can effectively limit Alabama’s fast-break opportunities, they will force Alabama to play in the half-court, where they might be less efficient. Watch how well Saint Mary’s is able to take care of the ball and avoid turnovers.

Prediction:

Saint Mary’s will need to play at their preferred pace to have a chance against Alabama. If the Gaels are able to keep the game in the 60s or 70s, they will have a much better chance of pulling off the upset. Saint Mary’s defense will be tested, but their disciplined approach should keep them in the game, even if Alabama manages to get out in transition at times.

3. Alabama’s Three-Point Shooting vs. Saint Mary’s Defensive Efficiency

Why It Matters:

Alabama’s offensive attack revolves heavily around the three-point shot. The Crimson Tide are one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the country, and their ability to spread the floor and hit shots from beyond the arc is a major part of their offensive identity. The threat of the three-point shot opens up driving lanes for players like Jahvon Quinerly and Brandon Miller to attack the rim. However, Saint Mary’s is one of the most defensively efficient teams in the country, and their ability to defend the three-point line will be crucial in this matchup.

Saint Mary’s has done a great job all season of limiting opponents’ three-point shooting, and their defensive schemes often revolve around contesting outside shots and forcing teams to take contested looks. The key for the Gaels in this game will be whether they can defend the three-point line effectively without overcommitting and allowing easy looks at the basket.

What to Watch:

• Three-Point Attempts and Shooting Percentage: Keep an eye on the volume and accuracy of Alabama’s three-point attempts. The Tide’s offense is built around spreading the floor with shooters, and they often take a high number of three-pointers. If Alabama is knocking down their shots, it will be tough for Saint Mary’s to keep pace. However, if Saint Mary’s can force Alabama into a poor shooting night from deep, the Gaels could control the game.
• Alabama’s Perimeter Defense: Saint Mary’s will also rely on their perimeter shooting, and players like Aidan Mahaney and Alex Ducas can hit from beyond the arc. If Alabama is too aggressive on defense, it could open up opportunities for Saint Mary’s to capitalize from long-range. Watch for how well Alabama contests shots and if they can stay disciplined on defense without allowing open looks.
• Defensive Adjustments: Saint Mary’s may employ different defensive schemes to deal with Alabama’s three-point shooting. For instance, they could use a zone defense to close out on shooters or switch up ball screens to prevent Alabama’s guards from getting open looks. The Gaels will likely need to be physical and smart about how they defend the perimeter.

Prediction:

If Alabama is shooting well from three, they could overwhelm Saint Mary’s with their offensive firepower. However, if the Gaels can limit Alabama’s three-point opportunities and force them into tough shots, they could make life much harder for the Tide. The balance between Alabama’s three-point shooting and Saint Mary’s defensive adjustments will be one of the most pivotal elements of the game.