Duke men’s basketball opponent preview: North Carolina

This Saturday, Duke makes the short trip south to Chapel Hill, aiming to write another chapter in the storied Tobacco Road rivalry. In their first meeting this season in Durham, the Blue Devils took care of business on their home court in a decisive 87-70 victory. For North Carolina, making the NCAA Tournament seemed out of the picture then, but a six-game win-streak for the Tar Heels has reinvigorated hope for the squad as Selection Sunday draws nearer. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently has North Carolina as one of the First Four out, but defeating the No. 2 team in the country would surely reframe the conversation around the Tar Heels.

Duke will be looking to sweep the season series against North Carolina and clinch the outright ACC regular-season title. It would be Duke head coach Jon Scheyer’s first ACC regular-season championship and his second win at the Dean E. Smith Center. For many Blue Devils, this will be their only appearance in Chapel Hill, a last true away environment before the team heads to Charlotte for the ACC Tournament.

The Tar Heels have looked like a different team ever since their blowout loss to Clemson in early February. While the competition has not been strong, something has clearly changed for coach Hubert Davis’ squad. Junior Ven-Allen Lubin and Senior Jae’lyn Withers have featured more prominently on the court, adding size to a rather small lineup. The contributions have been throughout the lineup too; in their recent win against Miami, six players were in double figures as the team shot 58.9% from the field and 55.6% from three.

Duke’s composure will surely be tested Saturday in a must-win for North Carolina. The Tar Heels are not the same team they were a month ago, and in rivalry games of this magnitude, there’s no telling who will write the next installment of the storied rivalry. -Jerry Barajas

With junior forward Maliq Brown’s status unknown for Saturday, freshman centers Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba II will have to carry a significant amount of the defensive load in the low post. Both have a clear height advantage over Lubin, but they have also played inconsistently on the defensive end. Of course, part of what makes Duke’s defense so good is its fantastic switching, and that means the defensive burden against all Tar Heels — not just Lubin — will be relatively dispersed among the Blue Devils. Ultimately, stopping Lubin will take away a key option for North Carolina, forcing one of the shortest teams in Division I basketball to play even smaller against the tallest.

Emphasize runs: According to basketball analyst Evan Miyakawa, a team with two “kill shots” in a game — that is, scoring runs of 10-0 or greater — wins that game the overwhelming majority of the time. Duke exemplified that in the first match with the Tar Heels with this season, going on first-half runs of 16-0 and 11-0 to get out to a 22-point halftime lead. Of course, sometimes good looks don’t fall in, and sometimes great defense still ends in a tough bucket for the opposing team. However, the Blue Devils must capitalize on the Tar Heels’ occasional shooting slumps to earn scoring runs of their own. North Carolina has been an extremely feisty team, winning multiple close contests such as those against Dayton and Pittsburgh. In order to emerge victorious, Duke must stay aggressive for all 40 minutes in this rivalry matchup.

Meet the moment: The Tar Heels are playing for their NCAA Tournament hopes, and could land on the right side of the bubble with a victory over the No. 2 team in the country. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are a consensus No. 1 seed looking to show that their record is reflective of dominance as opposed to a weak schedule. Saturday’s game will be a perfect opportunity for Duke to show the Selection Committee that they are a force to be reckoned with. If the Blue Devils can put on a show at the Dean E. Smith Center, they will enter the ACC Tournament with as much momentum as any team in the nation. -Tyler Walley