2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks: Why Brendan Marks picked Duke over fellow 1-seed Florida
As the 2025 NCAA Tournament approaches, basketball analysts and fans alike begin to break down the matchups, predict the outcomes, and make their selections for the bracket. Among the top contenders for the national championship are two teams that are no strangers to success on the biggest stage: the Duke Blue Devils and the Florida Gators. Both teams have been dominant forces in college basketball, securing No. 1 seeds in the tournament and boasting talented rosters. However, when it came time for Brendan Marks—one of the leading college basketball analysts—to make his prediction, he selected Duke over Florida as his pick to win the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
In a detailed breakdown of his reasoning, Marks laid out a variety of factors that contributed to his decision. From the teams’ styles of play to the strength of their rosters, Marks’ analysis reflects a comprehensive evaluation of both squads and what gives Duke the edge in this high-stakes tournament setting.
The Blue Devils’ Elite Talent: A Case for the Favorites
Duke, as a program, is no stranger to being at the top of the college basketball world. Under head coach Jon Scheyer, the Blue Devils have maintained their place as one of the most prestigious and dominant teams in the sport. The 2025 iteration of Duke basketball is no exception, featuring a mix of high-profile recruits and seasoned veterans. Marks’ first reason for selecting Duke over Florida is rooted in the elite talent on the roster.
At the forefront of Duke’s team is none other than the highly anticipated freshman, Cooper Flagg, who has already made waves as one of the top prospects in college basketball. Flagg’s ability to impact the game on both ends of the floor is unparalleled, with his defensive prowess, versatility, and offensive skill set allowing him to contribute across the board. As a 6-foot-8 forward with exceptional shot-blocking ability, Flagg is a matchup nightmare for any opposing team, and his presence elevates Duke’s defense to another level.
“Cooper Flagg is the kind of player who changes games,” Marks explained. “He can guard multiple positions, dominate on the glass, and provide scoring in a variety of ways. His combination of size, athleticism, and basketball IQ makes him a game-changer for Duke, and in a tournament setting, that’s the kind of player who can lead a team all the way to the national title.”
Alongside Flagg, Duke boasts an impressive supporting cast, with returnees like Jeremy Roach and Kyle Filipowski adding depth and experience. Roach, a dynamic guard, has the ability to take over games in clutch moments, while Filipowski provides a steady presence in the post and can stretch the floor with his shooting. Together, these players form a balanced and potent lineup that can compete with any team in the country.
Florida, on the other hand, has a very talented squad, led by standout players like forward Jalen Reed and guard Tyrell Jenkins. While Florida’s roster is undoubtedly strong, Marks noted that Duke’s talent is simply more well-rounded, particularly when it comes to star power. “Florida is a solid team with great pieces, but Duke’s mix of elite individual talent and depth gives them the edge.”
The Coaching Edge: Scheyer vs. Golden
When discussing the potential of any team in the NCAA Tournament, coaching plays a pivotal role. In this comparison, Marks points to Jon Scheyer’s experience as the deciding factor. Despite only being in his second year as head coach, Scheyer has already proven himself as a master tactician capable of maximizing his team’s strengths. His ability to make in-game adjustments and get the most out of his players is one of the reasons why Marks believes Duke is positioned to make a deep tournament run.
“Jon Scheyer is one of the brightest young minds in college basketball,” Marks said. “He’s been a part of this program for a long time, and he’s shown that he knows how to navigate the pressure of the tournament. His ability to get his players to perform under duress is something that will pay huge dividends in March.”
By contrast, Florida is led by head coach Todd Golden, who has done an excellent job rebuilding the program. However, Marks pointed out that Golden’s tournament experience pales in comparison to Scheyer’s. While Golden has shown promise in his tenure at Florida, leading the Gators to a No. 1 seed, there is something to be said about the advantage of having a coach who’s been in the pressure cooker of the NCAA Tournament multiple times.
“Golden has been a solid coach for Florida, but Duke’s pedigree in March and Scheyer’s experience at the helm put them in a better position to succeed in this environment,” Marks explained.
The Blue Devils’ Defensive Dominance
Another significant factor in Marks’ decision to pick Duke over Florida is the Blue Devils’ defensive capabilities. In the NCAA Tournament, defense often becomes the determining factor between success and failure, and Duke has been one of the most defensively dominant teams in the country. With Flagg anchoring the defense and other versatile players like Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor contributing on that end, Duke is one of the toughest teams to score against.
In particular, Flagg’s ability to disrupt opponents with his shot-blocking and ability to guard multiple positions is invaluable in a tournament where teams will need to face diverse styles of play. Additionally, Duke’s length and athleticism across the board give them the ability to switch defensive schemes and match up well against teams with varying offensive systems.
While Florida is certainly no slouch defensively, Marks noted that Duke’s elite level of defensive versatility is a game-changer in the tournament. “In March, the best defensive teams tend to have the most success,” he said. “Duke’s ability to shut down teams in the half-court and stifle high-scoring offenses with their defensive length and athleticism is something that will serve them well in the tournament.”
The X-Factor: Duke’s Ability to Adjust
While both Duke and Florida have impressive talent, what sets Duke apart in Marks’ eyes is their ability to adjust to any situation. Tournament play is all about making quick adjustments on the fly, and Duke’s deep roster and coaching staff give them the tools to do so. Whether it’s changing up defensive schemes or adjusting offensive game plans, Marks believes Duke’s ability to adapt will be crucial in their run to the national championship.
“Duke is a team that can win in multiple ways,” Marks said. “They can grind out defensive battles, or they can light up the scoreboard with their offense. That kind of versatility is huge in March, where you never know what kind of game you’ll be in. Whether they need to slow it down or speed it up, I have full confidence that Duke can make those adjustments.”
Florida, by contrast, is a bit more predictable in their style of play. While they’re a talented team that can win in a variety of ways, Marks noted that they don’t possess the same level of flexibility that Duke has. In a tournament setting, where teams often face different challenges and matchups, having the ability to switch gears quickly can be a game-changer.
Duke’s Tournament Pedigree
Finally, Marks cited Duke’s long history of success in the NCAA Tournament as a key factor in his decision. The Blue Devils have consistently been one of the most successful programs in tournament history, and while Florida has had its own share of success, it simply can’t match the historical pedigree of Duke. From Coach K’s legendary tenure to the program’s five national championships, Duke has a legacy that instills confidence in fans and analysts alike.
“Duke has a reputation for rising to the occasion in the tournament, and that’s not something you can just overlook,” Marks said. “The Blue Devils are built for March, and with their talent, coaching, and pedigree, they are well-positioned to make another deep run.”
Why Duke Over Florida
Brendan Marks’ decision to pick Duke over Florida for the 2025 NCAA Tournament is based on a combination of factors: elite talent, defensive dominance, coaching experience, versatility, and tournament pedigree. While Florida is undoubtedly a strong team with the potential to make a deep run, Marks believes that Duke’s superior talent, particularly with a player like Cooper Flagg, along with the Blue Devils’ ability to adapt and adjust throughout the tournament, makes them the favorites to win it all.
“In the end, it’s the combination of all of these factors that makes Duke the team to beat,” Marks concluded. “They have the talent, the coaching, and the experience to go all the way. I’m picking Duke to take home the 2025 national title.”