Paul Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ powerhouse right‑hander and former LSU star, has emerged in 2025 as the favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award, a remarkable ascent from finishing third in the voting as a rookie in 2024. As sportsbooks continually update their lines, Skenes’s odds have shifted multiple times, reflecting both his dominance on the mound and the evolving narratives around his competition.
Entering the season with significant hype, Skenes was initially priced at +300 to win NL Cy Young at BetMGM and other lines. That preseason valuation positioned him at the front of the futures board, ahead of established names such as Zack Wheeler (+750) and Chris Sale (+800) bleachernation.com+14Sports Betting Dime+14VegasInsider+14. Even before the first pitch, Skenes was viewed as a major contender, carrying the weight of expectations directly out of LSU and after a Rookie of the Year campaign.
As the season commenced, Skenes’s odds steadily shortened. By early May, BetMGM had improved his line to about –185, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto edged in as the second choice at +500, with Wheeler at about +1000 bleachernation.com. A narrative began to form: this wasn’t speculative hype anymore—Paul Skenes was delivering elite results, game after game.
By late May, Bleacher Nation’s betting analysis declared Skenes the outright favorite, situating him at odds around +240, with Yamamoto (+280) and Zack Wheeler (+340) as the closest challengers bleachernation.com. At that point, his odds implied significantly higher probability than his foes, and betting advice leaned toward the value-heavy pick, while awareness of Yamamoto’s closing gap began to rise.
Despite a win–loss record that lagged behind his statistical excellence, Skenes continued to dominate. As of early July, Fox Sports reported him at +100 to win the award (50 % implied probability), with Zack Wheeler now listed at –125, making Wheeler the new betting favorite at BetMGM . At the same time, Sportsnet Pittsburgh noted his pricing at –145 on FanDuel, with Wheeler trailing and the likes of Cristopher Sanchez and Logan Webb wide behind .
BetMGM published detailed splits showing Skenes earning the largest share of total handle (~26.8 %) while Wheeler led in ticket count (~13.1 %)—a telling indicator that large bettors continued backing Skenes even as casual money gravitated toward Wheeler . Meanwhile, SportsbookReview and other markets carried Skenes at roughly –167 and Wheeler at +130, with implied probabilities reflecting a tight two‑man race even as Skenes remained listed first in most rankings .
By mid‑July, coverage from OddsChecker and MLB.com reported that Wheeler had officially overtaken Skenes on BetMGM, priced at –125, while Skenes was moved to +100. Still, Skenes retained substantial betting interest and remained entrenched as the top potential winner in many futures ranks . As of July 9, Bleacher Nation framed the race as narrower than ever, citing Skenes’s 2.12 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts in 106 innings, while noting Wheeler’s strong numbers—a 2.27 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 136 strikeouts in 107 innings—which had brought him side by side with Skenes as the contest reached the All‑Star break .
Across sportsbooks, the odds have bounced in part due to performance trends and partly due to public sentiment. In one mid‑June update, Bleacher Nation listed Skenes at –175, with Wheeler at around +1000 and Yamamoto over +500 . By June 24, they reiterated Skenes as the heavy favorite, despite mention that Robbie Ray could represent sneaky value, and affirmed Skenes’s market dominance amid the tightening race .
Throughout all this, NCAA pedigree and team factors have played into narratives. Skenes—LSU’s dominant collegiate transfer from Air Force Academy—established himself as a star in college before being selected first overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, and he arrived in Pittsburgh already held as the best pitching prospect in years . While the Pirates have floundered offensively, preventing Skenes from piling up wins—he struggled to find victories even in dominant outings—the betting markets seem comfortable rewarding his elite process rather than his flawed scoreboard record .
It’s notable that the silence around run support echoes the career arcs of past winners like Jacob deGrom or Felix Hernandez, who won Cy Young Awards despite unimpressive win totals because their underlying performance was unrivaled—even on subpar teams .
In addition to the raw odds, fan sentiment offers context: a fan poll among Pittsburgh supporters found that nearly sixty percent believed if Skenes stayed healthy he would claim the award—no small vote of confidence even as his team languished .
As of now—or specifically as of late July 2025—the most recent public odds show a dead‑heat between Skenes and Wheeler, with Wheeler often leading marginally at –125 and Skenes at +100 or –115, depending on the sportsbook . Meanwhile, Yoshinobu Yamamoto remains in third but has steadily trimmed the gap, while Cristopher Sánchez, Logan Webb, MacKenzie Gore, and Robbie Ray lurk behind as mid‑range longshots in the +1400 to +5000+ range .
What’s clear is that Skenes’s odds have shifted dramatically from +300 preseason, through –185 in May, to tight lines around ±100 today, and that Wheeler’s late surge reflects both veteran consistency and public money. Moreover, the divergence in ticket count vs handle suggests different types of bettors see different value—casual bettors lean toward Wheeler’s experience, while sharp money sticks with Skenes’s ceiling.
Looking at Skenes’s season to this point: elite metrics like a sub‑2.00 ERA (commonly around 2.01 or 2.12 depending on the tracking moments), WHIP below or near 0.91, and high strikeout totals exceeding 130 strikeouts in just over 120 innings have anchored his case. Yet, his win‑loss record remains poor—4‑8 or similar—due to historically weak Pirates run support. His season recalls deGrom’s 2018 campaign where he won despite only having 10 wins—a precedent that Skenes may match or break if he carries on in similar fashion .
As the trade deadline passes and the postseason push nears, future odds will hinge on two forces: continued dominance from Skenes and potential control from Wheeler in the Phillies rotation. Should the Pirates’ offense awaken or Skenes sustain elite ratios, he may regain or extend his lead. Conversely, if Wheeler continues striking out over 9 batters per nine and posting low walk numbers for a contender in the NL East, the market could shift more decisively in his favor.
In sum: Paul Skenes has been the betting favorite for much of the 2025 NL Cy Young race, beginning at +300, improving through –185, and holding near even odds as of late July. Zack Wheeler has surged late and sometimes leads the line, especially at BetMGM. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a handful of others like Cristopher Sánchez remain longshots but credible secondary bets. Betting patterns suggest money continues to flow toward Skenes, even as casual sentiment edges Wheeler.
For those tracking the award race, keep a close eye on Skenes’s upcoming starts—his strikeout totals, control metrics, and post‑All‑Star stretch performance—as well as any indicators of increased run support from the Pirates. Although win–loss won’t matter much in the pure metrics, wins still sway many voter narratives and betting dials. With fewer than two months left in the season, the Cy Young race has evolved from Skenes’s expected coronation into a competitive duel—with every start carrying weight in the shifting lines.
