As the 2025 NFL season concludes and the Miami Dolphins look ahead to the 2026 season, the team is emerging as one of the most intriguing dark horse contenders in the AFC. With a roster that boasts explosive talent on both sides of the ball, the Dolphins have positioned themselves as a team to watch for the upcoming season, with their Super Bowl odds reflecting both their potential and the uncertainty surrounding other AFC teams.
Why the Dolphins Are AFC Dark Horse Contenders
The Miami Dolphins have been building steadily over the past few seasons, and while they may not yet be the clear-cut favorites in the AFC, they certainly have the pieces in place to make a deep playoff run. Here’s why the Dolphins are being viewed as a dark horse contender for Super Bowl 2026:
1. Explosive Offense Led by Tua Tagovailoa
At the heart of Miami’s offense is Tua Tagovailoa, who has been growing into his role as the franchise quarterback. Despite dealing with injury concerns in previous seasons, Tua has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly when working with his elite receiving duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
- Tyreek Hill remains one of the most electrifying wide receivers in the NFL, capable of stretching the field and turning any catch into a potential game-changer. Pairing him with the dynamic Waddle creates one of the most potent wide receiver tandems in the league.
- Tua’s Growth: If Tua can stay healthy and continue to develop his decision-making and deep-ball accuracy, the Dolphins’ offense will be a nightmare for opposing defenses. His ability to quickly distribute the ball to his playmakers while also taking advantage of his speed on short and deep routes makes the offense incredibly difficult to defend.
2. Creative Coaching Under Mike McDaniel
Head coach Mike McDaniel has quickly earned a reputation as one of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL. Known for his ability to scheme up innovative plays and tailor the offense to his players’ strengths, McDaniel has helped transform Miami’s attack into one of the league’s most explosive units.
- Offensive Schemes: McDaniel’s use of motion, play action, and run-pass options has been particularly effective in maximizing the talents of his skill players. His offensive creativity is likely to continue evolving, giving the Dolphins an edge against defensive coordinators who may struggle to keep up with the fast-paced, versatile offense.
3. Improving Defense with Playmakers
The Dolphins’ defense has become more competitive in recent years, with stars like Jevon Holland, Xavien Howard, and Bradley Chubb anchoring the unit. While Miami may not have the same level of elite talent as some of the top AFC defenses, they have enough playmakers to make crucial stops in big games.
- Jevon Holland is emerging as one of the best safeties in the NFL, capable of creating turnovers and being a difference-maker in both the passing game and run support. His leadership in the secondary is vital for Miami’s defensive success.
- Xavien Howard, a proven shutdown corner, provides an excellent counterbalance to opposing wide receivers, giving the defense a reliable presence in pass coverage.
- Bradley Chubb provides a consistent pass rush, but Miami may still need additional help to bolster their defensive line, particularly with more consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
With a solid secondary and a rising defensive line, the Dolphins could be poised to challenge high-powered offenses in the AFC, particularly if they make a few more key acquisitions to round out the defense.
4. A Strong Special Teams Unit
The importance of special teams in big games cannot be overstated, and the Dolphins have a reliable unit that can make a difference in field position, return yardage, and clutch kicking situations. The right mix of special teams plays can swing momentum in critical moments during a playoff run.
AFC Landscape: How the Dolphins Stack Up Against the Competition
While Miami is certainly an exciting dark horse candidate, they will face stiff competition from some of the AFC’s elite teams, including:
- Kansas City Chiefs: The defending Super Bowl champions, led by Patrick Mahomes, are always a formidable force. They’ll remain the standard in the AFC unless another team can consistently challenge them in key matchups.
- Cincinnati Bengals: With Joe Burrow at the helm and a stacked roster, the Bengals remain one of the most complete teams in the AFC. Their offense and defense are balanced, and they’ve proven they can compete with the best.
- Buffalo Bills: Led by Josh Allen, the Bills are another contender in the AFC. However, they’ve struggled in high-stakes playoff games and will need to retool some areas of their roster to stay competitive.
- Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have been known for their strong defense and dual-threat quarterback in Lamar Jackson. If they can surround Jackson with more playmaking weapons, they could be a serious threat in the AFC.
While all of these teams will likely enter the 2026 season with higher expectations, the Dolphins have a unique opportunity to capitalize on their offensive explosiveness and improve their defense enough to make a run for the AFC title.
Dolphins’ Key Areas to Address in the Offseason
If Miami wants to elevate their chances of competing for a Super Bowl in 2026, they will need to make a few strategic moves in the offseason:
1. Boosting the Offensive Line
The Dolphins’ offensive line remains a weak point, particularly in terms of protecting Tua Tagovailoa. A more consistent and reliable offensive line will be essential to giving Tua time to execute McDaniel’s offense and allowing the run game to thrive. If Miami can secure an upgrade through free agency or the draft, it will go a long way in ensuring the offense reaches its full potential.
2. Adding Defensive Playmakers
Miami has a strong secondary, but they could use more help in their front seven. Another playmaking linebacker or edge rusher could help the Dolphins generate more consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. With the AFC filled with elite signal-callers, a strong pass rush will be critical in slowing down the likes of Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen.
3. Depth and Consistency
Miami needs to focus on building depth across both sides of the ball. Injuries and inconsistent play can derail even the most talented teams, so ensuring that key backups are ready to step up when needed is important for a deep playoff run. Having a reliable backup quarterback, strong depth in the trenches, and depth in the receiving corps would make Miami more dangerous in a postseason run.
2026 Super Bowl Odds and What’s Next
As of now, the Miami Dolphins’ Super Bowl 2026 odds are likely to place them in the mid-tier range of AFC teams, depending on offseason moves and the development of their roster. While they may not be the favorites to win the Super Bowl, they could easily make a leap into the conversation as long as Tua stays healthy, the offense remains dynamic, and the defense continues to improve.
- Odds Range: The Dolphins could find themselves in the +1200 to +2000 range, depending on the state of the AFC. A few key moves in free agency or a breakout season for Tua could catapult them into the conversation for a top seed in the playoffs.
Ultimately, the Dolphins’ chances of winning Super Bowl 2026 will hinge on their ability to consistently perform against the league’s best, stay healthy, and execute in high-pressure moments. With the right mix of talent, coaching, and improvement in key areas, Miami is well-positioned to be one of the AFC’s most dangerous dark horse contenders heading into the next season.