The leaves are turning, the air is crisping, and the narrative arcs of the NFL season are hardening into something resembling concrete. As we cross the threshold of Week 7 and gaze upon the landscape of the league, one constant remains, a familiar face presiding over the chaos from his throne in the statistical and odds-making heavens: Patrick Mahomes. Despite not having what anyone would call a vintage, earth-scorching Mahomes campaign, the Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback remains the undeniable front-runner for the Most Valuable Player award, sitting atop the odds boards as he has for what feels like half a decade. His presence there is a testament not just to his otherworldly talent, but to the very definition of the award, the power of narrative, and the gravitational pull of assumed greatness. Yet, beneath his towering presence, the field is teeming with compelling, high-value challengers whose cases are growing louder with each passing Sunday. The question for any keen observer is no longer just if Mahomes can be caught, but who possesses the best combination of stellar production, compelling story, and lucrative odds to make a serious run at the throne.
The fact that Mahomes leads the race is both entirely logical and, upon closer inspection, a fascinating study in perception versus reality. By his own stratospheric standards, this has been a “down” year. The statistical fireworks are slightly dimmer; the no-look, side-arm, backyard wizardry moments have been less frequent. The Chiefs’ offense has, at times, looked out of sync, plagued by uncharacteristic drops from a young receiving corps and a running game that has failed to consistently intimidate. Yet, here he is, 6-1, leading the league in passing yards, and orchestrating victories with the cold, calculated precision of a chess grandmaster who has grown bored of flashy checkmates. This is the essence of the Mahomes MVP argument in 2023: it is a testament to value in its purest form. The Chiefs, as a construct, are an extension of his will. When the weapons are lacking, he becomes the weapon. When the running game stalls, his arm is the engine. His value is not just in the stats he accumulates, but in the wins he single-handedly salvages from the jaws of offensive mediocrity. The narrative is powerful: the genius quarterback, elevating a flawed roster through sheer force of talent and football IQ. It’s a story the voters love, and one that Mahomes, with his weekly highlight-reel throws in crucial moments, is perfectly positioned to tell. He is the safe bet, the known commodity, and until someone forcibly wrests the crown from his head, the odds will reflect his assumed inevitability.
But inevitability is a dangerous assumption in the parity-driven NFL, and the market for the MVP award is flush with high-value stocks poised for a potential boom. To identify the best value pick, one must look beyond the current front-runner and assess who has the portfolio of performance, team success, and narrative momentum to make a legitimate charge.
One cannot have this conversation without immediately landing on the hurricane of energy and production that is Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens. Jackson’s odds represent perhaps the most tantalizing blend of proven pedigree and current explosiveness. The Ravens are a legitimate force, boasting statement wins over a gauntlet of playoff-caliber teams, and Jackson is the undisputed catalyst. He is executing offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s scheme with a masterful blend of patience and pyrotechnics. He is on pace for a career-high in passing completion percentage, his decision-making is razor-sharp, and his rushing threat remains the most devastating weapon of its kind in the sport. The narrative of “Lamar 2.0″—a more complete, more dangerous passer who has retained his game-breaking mobility—is potent. He has already won an MVP, so the voters are familiar with his case. If the Ravens continue to pile up wins against a tough schedule and Jackson maintains his dual-threat dominance, his case will become undeniable, and his current odds will look like a steal in retrospect.
Then there is the relentless force of nature in South Beach, Tua Tagovailoa. The connection between Tua and his peerless wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, is the most potent offensive symbiosis in the league. Tua leads the league in passer rating and QBR, operating Mike McDaniel’s offense with a surgeon’s precision and a quick-release trigger that defies pass rushes. His case is a pure, unadulterated argument for statistical supremacy and offensive efficiency. The Dolphins are a spectacle, and Tua is the conductor. The primary knocks against his value candidacy have historically been his health and the notion that he is a system quarterback, a product of McDaniel’s genius and Hill’s superhuman speed. The health has held thus far, and as for the “system” argument, the counter is simple: the system does not work without a quarterback capable of making the right read and the perfect throw with lightning speed and accuracy. If the Dolphins secure the AFC’s top seed and their offense continues to shatter records, the narrative will shift from “is it the system?” to “Tua is the system’s perfect engine.” At his current value, he is a fantastic bet for anyone who believes the Dolphins’ offensive explosion is sustainable.
Venturing into the realm of even greater potential payoff, the name Jalen Hurts demands attention. The Philadelphia Eagles, much like the Chiefs, are not a flawless team. Their defense has been vulnerable, and their performances have sometimes been more gritty than glamorous. Yet, they keep winning, and at the center of it all is Hurts. He has not been as statistically dazzling as he was during his MVP-runner-up campaign last season, but his value is immeasurable. He is the team’s heartbeat and its primary weapon in the most critical moments. The “Tush Push” or “Brotherly Shove” is the ultimate metaphor for his value: in the most high-leverage, short-yardage situations in the game, the entire league knows what is coming, and no one can stop it because of Jalen Hurts’ unique combination of strength, will, and technique. He is a winner, pure and simple. If the Eagles surge in the second half of the season and Hurts begins to pad his passing stats alongside his vital rushing production, his narrative as the unflappable leader of the conference’s best team will make him a very serious contender, and his current odds offer significant value for a player of his stature and team’s success.
Of course, the MVP is not the exclusive domain of quarterbacks, though it has become so in recent history. For a true dark horse, one might look to a player who single-handedly defines his team’s identity on the other side of the ball. Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns is building a case that is becoming impossible to ignore. The Browns’ defense is a historically good unit through seven weeks, and Garrett is its transcendent superstar. He is not merely a pass rusher; he is a game-wrecker, a player who commands double and triple teams on every snap, who forces offensive coordinators to redesign their entire game plan. His blocked field goal to seal a victory against the Indianapolis Colts was a play of sheer, individual will—an MVP moment from a non-quarterback. The argument for Garrett is the argument for value in its most concentrated form: without him, the Browns’ defense, and by extension their entire team, is average at best. With him, they are a potential juggernaut. The hurdle is immense, as a defensive player has not won the award since Lawrence Taylor in 1986. But if Garrett continues on his current trajectory, breaking the sack record and leading a dominant defense to a division title, the conversation will become too loud to ignore. He is the ultimate long-shot, high-value pick, a bet on a paradigm shift in how we evaluate the term “most valuable.”
As we approach the halfway point, the MVP race is a captivating drama with a clear protagonist but a deeply talented and motivated supporting cast. Patrick Mahomes remains the safe, logical choice, the gold standard against whom all are measured. His lead is a reflection of his established dominance and the Chiefs’ winning record. But the value lies in the chasers. Lamar Jackson offers a proven winner with a new-and-improved arsenal. Tua Tagovailoa presents the conductor of the league’s most explosive offense. Jalen Hurts embodies the gritty leader of a perennial winner. And Myles Garrett represents the audacious hope that a defensive force can, for the first time in a generation, redefine the award itself. The second half of the season will be a referendum on these cases. Will it be the year of the established king, the refined dual-threat, the efficient maestro, the relentless winner, or the defensive titan? The odds are set, the stage is yours, and the value is there for the taking. Choose wisely.
